Opinion
Here’s a look at 2024 through acronyms and abbreviations
Summary
- Here’s a look at what 2024 may have in store as seen through a lens of abbreviations across domains like space exploration, digital technology, inflation targeting, war and elections.
The year 2023 was characterized by a belligerent, acrimonious world. And 2024 promises more of the same. To try and make sense of it, here is a somewhat acronymous look at the world ahead. Some of these initialisms made it into our consciousness only last year. Others have been in usage for a while. We can expect all of them to become more widely recognized this year.
Isro: The Indian Space Research Organisation had a banner 2023, with a pioneering soft-landing on the south side of the moon. On 1 January 2024, India’s space agency placed its X-ray Polarimeter Satellite in orbit, and has six major upcoming missions this year. The most noteworthy are Gaganyaan 1, which will prepare India for manned space flight, and Mangalyaan 2, India’s second mission to Mars. Nasa and Isro will collaborate in launching NISAR, a high-resolution radar-based earth mapping system. At the invitation of Nasa, an Indian astronaut might visit the International Space Station this year. Nasa also plans to launch a spacecraft that will explore one of Jupiter’s largest moons, Europa.
LLMs: If there was one phenomenon that defined 2023, it was artificial intelligence (AI), particularly large language models (LLMs). It is likely that OpenAI released ChatGPT 4.5, its latest LLM version, by stealth just before year end. This version will represent a marked improvement over ChatGPT 3.0 that took the world by storm early last year. Google’s Gemini and Meta’s LLaMA are among its many competitors. Now that this race is well and truly on, look for AI in general, and LLMs in particular, to make an even bigger impact in 2024. While technological change is not new to the world, a technology transformation that grows by an order of magnitude (10 times or more) in a single year is a new phenomenon. The world’s first comprehensive regulations to address the use of AI were drafted in the EU and will likely be turned into an Act this year. More regulation will undoubtedly follow, but it may be unable to keep up with the progress in this technology.
PCE: The preferred inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve Bank (FED) is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index. The core PCE dropped to 3.2% year-on-year from a peak of 5.5% just about a year ago, the highest level reached in 40 years. The cat-and-mouse game between the Fed and inflation (and by extension, financial markets) will continue in 2024, with the Fed on alert until it sees the level coming down to 2%. Only once that happens will the Fed likely start cutting interest rates, perhaps during the second half of 2024. This path has significant implications for emerging markets like India for its impact on domestic rates, capital flows and the exchange rate. If the US does achieve a soft-landing, it will be good for global trade and markets as well.
Uzi: Not only did the Ukraine conflict not end in 2023, another brutal war between Israel and Hamas began last October. The weapon systems of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) are primarily made domestically or sourced from the US. For instance, the now famous Iron Dome all-weather air defence system was developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries, both companies associated with the IDF. The US contributed a total of about $1.6 billion to this system. The IDF also continues to use the Israeli made Uzi (name after Major Uziel Gal) sub-machine gun, along with the modern Negev NG7 general purpose machine gun. The Israeli air-force’s fleet of fighters is made up of US F-16s. The US can exert enormous clout over Israel and a resolution of the conflict will require the US to be less ambivalent between war and peace. Continued funding for Ukraine’s weapons from both the US and EU during 2024 will become more difficult, which may create conditions for the discussion of a resolution.
50%: Unprecedented so far, countries that represent more than 50% of the world’s population will go to elections in 2024. In addition to India, big and small countries like Bangladesh, Taiwan, the US, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Iran and Pakistan will elect governments. At a time of great uncertainty, the potential for massive political change will compound the omnipresent volatility. Mexico will most likely elect its first woman president since both candidates of the principal parties are women. Elections are welcome, but illiberalism pervades many of these countries.
‘India’ versus NDA: The Congress-led coalition upstaged the BJP-led one last year with its choice of ‘INDIA’ as a moniker. But BJP had the last laugh in the state elections by sweeping the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Elections are notoriously difficult to call several months ahead, but the NDA will likely return to power in India for a third consecutive term, a modern-day record for India. Super-forecasters at The Economist have put out a 70% chance of the NDA securing more than 299 seats in the country’s 543-seat Lok Sabha.
C0P-29: The United Nations Conference of the Parties (CoP), which meets annually to further climate action, will meet next November in Baku, Azerbaijan. Like the host UAE in 2023, Azerbaijan is a hydrocarbon- rich country. We can expect any commitment to a timetable for the elimination of hydrocarbons to remain elusive.
P.S: “DAE have a POV? HMU." That’s my (feeble) attempt to communicate in social media vocabulary.
