Geopolitics: Brace for a global shake-up now that Trump has rattled Nato

By asking its trans-Atlantic allies to fend for themselves, America might have begun to pull the rug from under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), a steady alliance of Western countries bound by a pledge of all-for-one and one-for-all. 

To the alarm of European leaders, what exactly the US shift implied was still sinking in when news broke of Washington’s pursuit of direct talks with Moscow on a peace deal to end the Ukraine War. Neither Kyiv nor any EU representative was invited to a warm-up meeting of American and Russian officials held in Riyadh. 

Also Read: Planned US-Russia talks over Ukraine throw Europe into crisis

The stark reality of Europe’s voice being kept out, placed in the context of US hints that Russia may get to keep occupied Ukrainian territory, has stunned not just America’s closest Nato allies, but also others around the world. Pushed by a sudden US tilt away, European leaders went into an emergency huddle of their own. Apart from a joint defence plan that doesn’t hinge on US backing, they also need a say in what Europe’s map will look like if and when hostilities end. 

Diplomats elsewhere have been pushed to the edge of their seats too. After all, if America could leave Nato in the lurch so brazenly, can it be relied upon to honour its other global commitments?

With all bets off, scenario planners in India face greater complexity as well. Trump only has a four-year term in office, but his ‘America First’ agenda already has bipartisan support on trade; other aspects of it could plausibly endure too. While the Biden White House saw democracy ranged against autocracy, a Cold War II with China and Russia as adversaries, echoing the earlier split, Trump seems both dismissive of ideology and bent on maximizing economic value. 

Also Read: Anarchy or autocracy: What exactly is the Trump presidency aiming for?

This is not at odds with India’s neutral stance in global geopolitics, whether we call it ‘non-aligned’ or ‘pro-peace,’ which should continue to assure us leeway in world affairs, the reason we did not officially ‘ally’ with the US even as ties warmed. 

Nato’s rupture, meanwhile, could get the EU to toughen its defences and project US-free power, reducing the world’s bipolarity and making space for India to enhance its sway. 

But we must not gloss over a worst-case scenario. What if Beijing emerges as a winner? 

Whether it had any role in today’s conflicts, the Gaza one being closer home, is a matter of speculation. But signs of a China-Iran- Russia axis had begun to cast its shadow on the world map. Should Trump somehow spot value in a three-way deal to maximize US, Russian and Chinese interests, to the exclusion of US allies and partners, it would take Biden’s formula apart. It may even scuttle the Quad’s vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. 

Also Read: Here to stay: The Quad has defined a strategic agenda for the Indo-Pacific

So far, we have few hints of what other security measures may be set adrift by ‘America First.’ But, going by the signals being sent, we cannot rule out the scenario of a China empowered by the withdrawal of a US defensive shield from Asia.

That the US is ready to strike big-ticket armament deals with India should reassure us on a key front. So long as our direct relations with the US do not wobble (and money talks), we can shop for arms. Thankfully, the Quad was never a defence pact and India has always been ready to defend itself. But a seismic shock from the West could reach the East. We must stay alert.