Oceans are getting roiled while the fabric of world trade gets tattered: It mustn’t go too far
The world faces risks as hard power and geopolitics turn oceans and trade routes into theatres of conflict. Outcomes could reshape the global balance of power, but the toll taken on the world must be kept to a minimum. The last threads in the warp and weft of global ties mustn’t be allowed to snap.
The threads of commerce once wove tapestries of trade, with steady routes and exchange hubs lifting the prosperity of nations. But the map of international business is no longer tranquil—we now sail on the turbulent seas of hard power and violent oceans of geopolitics.
Marine piracy has evolved from rogue adventurism to a systematic assault on entire economies. Today, the fate of trade is held hostage by two bullies, one each from the East and West, determined to reverse half a century of progress and wield the single most devastating weapon: power.
In the last five years, the fabric of our existence has nearly been torn by a virus and now the fabric of trade is on its way to being shredded. The first was utterly unexpected. Covid and its mutations infected every company, hammered every economy and ground every nation down. It left a $2.37 trillion hole in global GDP, greater than the entire economies of Italy, Canada or Brazil. Governments scrambled to contain the economic crises with fiscal responses of vastly enlarged public spending.
The second fabric, trade, is being taken apart by hidden and overt tools of trade weaponization by the two largest economies. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), projected as a global connectivity project, turned into an arena of aggression through wolf-warrior diplomacy and debt-trap engagements.
Technologically, Beijing attempted to infiltrate and capture the world’s data through its 5G infrastructure; nations saw the threat and secured systems. The BRI now creaks under its own contradictions, even as Beijing tries to recast itself as a champion of globalization, while also using policy tools that choke the free flow of trade.
Driven by domestic political compulsions, since February 2025, US President Donald Trump has been spraying the trade fabric with tariff bullets. These take the shape of trade barriers, but serve as weapons of mass intimidation, designed to bring adversaries and allies alike to their knees.
From Canada and Mexico to allies in Europe to groupings such as Brics and countries such as India, few have been spared . Even the World Trade Organization finds itself incapable of settling disputes. The sole exception: China, which Trump can’t bully without consequences.
Consequently, the tapestry that lifted ideas, goods, jobs and prosperity has been getting tattered. Where are we headed? Let’s ocean-gaze for clues. Once symbols of openness, they are embroiled in a power contest.
Global trade in 2024 surged to over $32 trillion: almost $23.5 trillion in goods, nearly $9 trillion in services. As much as 80% of the world’s merchandise trade moved across seas and oceans.
More than a quarter of this sailed through 10 major sea routes; nearly a fifth, through just five—the trans-Pacific route, Europe-Asia route via Suez, Strait of Hormuz, North Atlantic route and Strait of Malacca. Moreover, every digital service—movies and music, gaming and education—relies on ocean-bed fibre cables, tying the fate of virtual commerce to geopolitics.
Each passage is now an active warzone of influence. The Suez Canal faces sabotage, targeted by Houthis of Yemen. The South China Sea teems with skirmishes and China’s claims against its southeast Asian neighbours and Taiwan. The Panama Canal is a theatre of a US-versus-China contest for dominance. The Strait of Hormuz, an oil lifeline for Asian consumers, is perpetually threatened. Melting Arctic routes are becoming new battle-zones, with Russia and the West racing for supremacy.
The Strait of Malacca, through which a quarter of the world’s annual oil and container traffic squeezes, could see the next US-China face-off. Ironically, the tariffs imposed by Trump could push Beijing and New Delhi into an uncomfortable alliance of convenience. And if the US exits the Indian Ocean region, a zone of rivalry between two great powers could transform into one of strategic collaboration between two regional powers.
Beneath ocean surfaces, finance moves faster than goods. Undersea optic cables transmit $10 trillion of flows every day. Beyond commerce, oceans contain vast natural riches too. Seas around Hawaii and Tahiti may hold 100 billion tonnes of rare earths. Across the world, resource exploration is underway.
Invert the gaze and look at the world from the water’s perspective and what we see is that oceans, not land, are likely to see a major build-up. Around 730 million people live on 11,000 islands today; but more than 1 million lie uninhabited. Several islands could host strategic bases for defence, connectivity and economic vitality. India’s Great Nicobar Island project is an example. Building artificial islands is an entirely new idea of sovereignty extension and infrastructure build-up, though it may clash with international law.
Across millennia, oceans have nurtured and nourished nations. Now, they are becoming aquatic battle-zones. Powerful states are bent on taking apart trade ties, while trying to push weaker countries to the fringes. The fabric of trade has suffered enough. It is important for the world’s future that it does not get shredded beyond repair. The threads of commercial ties that bind the world must not be allowed to snap.
The author is vice president of the Observer Research Foundation.
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