Global covid trends suggest the pandemic may be petering out
Mortality numbers offer us some cause for guarded relief but three issues of significant urgency await policy-level attention
An analysis of six-weekly (official) covid deaths since the pandemic began around March 2020 indicates that mortality is declining, albeit at a varying pace, almost across the board after having peaked in April-June 2021. The inference is that the pandemic is either petering out, or the expected third wave is still to materialize. The third wave hypothesis has its origins in the pattern of the Spanish Flu a century ago that covid has broadly tracked. It is possible that a third wave might be averted, or at least moderated, on account of the global vaccination drive, the spread of the virus’s Delta variant notwithstanding.