Asian synergy: A patch-up with Beijing would serve India’s interests well
Let’s put Galwan behind us. As world trade wobbles, India and China could gain from mending commercial ties. It’s the geo-strategic aspect that demands deft handling in the context of our security challenges.
India seems ready to improve business relations with China. Though hints of it have been emerging since Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping last year at the Brics summit, signs of rapprochement have grown.
New Delhi is contemplating easing its restrictions on direct investment from China, for example. Non-sensitive sectors could see barriers being lowered, according to a Mint report.
To be sure, India’s Press Note 3, which mandates that investments from countries with which India shares land borders get government approval, is not about to be withdrawn. But India could ease scrutiny under this policy. Direct flights between the two countries are set to resume, even as India slowly gets more generous with visas issued to Chinese citizens.
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Meanwhile, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Delhi on Monday has set the stage for Modi to meet Xi at the forthcoming summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Beijing. Sectors like defence equipment, nuclear energy and telecom will probably be kept barred from Chinese participation, but the shadow cast by the Galwan rupture of 2020 has begun to fade.
The economic logic of it is clear. China needs India’s large market for its goods all the more as America tries to deter its shipments. India faces US trade hostility too and needs both Chinese capital and raw material inputs to accelerate the expansion of its economy. Asia’s promise would go unfulfilled without its big two reinforcing each other’s growth. Given China’s leadership of clean-tech industries, we could gain from partnerships in these fields that result in domestic absorption of know-how. There may also be something to learn from China’s recent advances in low-cost artificial intelligence (AI).
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That said, fraught relations with Beijing make any patch-up prone to dissonance. We must engage China even as we gradually break free of dependence on it, lest Beijing is tempted to use such leverage against us.
We remain reliant on China for supplies of rare-earth magnets, inputs for pharmaceutical drugs and more. Also, while retail-use AI may be safe, it has military applications too, so AI should partly be treated as a sensitive sector. As for other Chinese apps, a review of India’s 2020 ban list is overdue.
It helps that Beijing has been making conciliatory noises. If it is ready to grant our exports better access to its market and help address today’s skew in bilateral trade, a reset of commercial ties would serve both countries well.
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The thorny part, however, may be the geo-strategic aspect of the relationship. China’s support for Pakistan during Operation Sindoor looms large in memory. But Islamabad has gotten closer to the US since then. This would not have escaped Beijing’s notice. Nor would America’s emphasis on Aukus as an alliance focused on projecting military power in the East, with nuclear submarines patrolling the Indo-Pacific.
The Quad, of which India is a member along with the US, Japan and Australia, is not turning into a Nato-like pact. Notably, it does not oblige each member to act in any other member’s defence. Moreover, how deeply the current White House is invested in its future remains unclear. While the Quad’s agenda enables maritime coordination, it does not compromise India’s strategic autonomy.
In other words, Beijing has no reason to consider India a hardbound adversary. For New Delhi, engaging China could potentially loosen its ties with Pakistan. All in all, it’s a tricky trapeze act, but one we should try pulling off.
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