India’s US oil import figures for October should give President Donald Trump some reason for satisfaction. Shipments of US oil to India reportedly surged to a daily 540,000 barrels in October, according to reports citing data from Kpler.
This is the highest since 2022 and far exceeds the year-to-date average of about 300,000 barrels. So, does this indicate an Indian shift away from Russian oil, as Trump has been claiming New Delhi promised? Perhaps not. Russia remained our top oil supplier, with crude deliveries averaging around 1.75 million barrels per day.
India, however, does seem to be diversifying its sources. Reports suggest a pragmatic approach, with arbitrage opportunities being exploited as gaps open up between the price of WTI crude, the US benchmark, and Brent, which is the global one.
In other words, bigger US purchases may be driven by saving calculations more than geopolitics. And given the high freight costs associated with US supplies, a scenario where we buy the bulk of our crude from the US seems unlikely. Still, if it helps disarm the White House, we should see that as a bonus. It’s ultimately about national self-interest, exactly what the US is chasing.