Mint Quick Edit | Buck up: India’s US exports have tumbled and worse lies ahead
India’s exports to America may already have fallen sharply under the impact of its tariffs and data from September onwards is likely to be worse. What’s striking is China’s response to this year’s shift in trade winds. Can India adapt fast enough?
Even as India debates how badly tariffs will hurt exports to the US, privately gathered data has arrived that’s somewhat disheartening. From May 2025 to August, India’s goods exports to the US fell 22.2% to $6.9 billion, according to the Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI).
The drop itself isn’t surprising, given how much more expensive the new tariffs make Indian goods in America.
Buyers would have sought alternatives. What may be surprising, however, is how broad-based the fall was. It included items left uncovered by tariffs, such as smartphones, though a pre-tariffs export surge may have inflated earlier data.
Notably, India faced only a 25% extra tariff till late August, so the impact of the rate doubling will show up only in subsequent numbers.
Meanwhile, separate reports point to Chinese exports having shown resilience against US tariffs, with these shipments finding their way to other markets, including India.
Like Beijing, New Delhi has also been helping Indian exporters diversify their destinations. India needs to double down on these efforts, even as the guard is raised against any dumping of Chinese goods in India. With world trade in such flux, space for complacency has shrunk.
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