Mint Quick Edit | India can gain Indus leverage over Pakistan
Summary
Don’t understimate the power of long-range coercive diplomacy, whose use India has signalled with its suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. It’s a tool that hasn’t been tested.
In response to the heinous terror attack on tourists at Pahalgam in Kashmir, New Delhi has held in abeyance the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty that laid down how India and Pakistan would share the water flows of the Indus river system. Pakistan got access to Indus, Jhelum and Chenab waters, while India got Ravi, Beas and Sutlej flows.
Also Read: Pahalgam attack: Retaliation is easy, but restraint serves India’s long-term interests
A deal being suspended that survived three wars with Pakistan is significant for the leverage it could grant New Delhi over Islamabad. Pakistani farming would be vulnerable to Indian water-release decisions if storage dams are built on the rivers Pakistan relies on; the treaty allowed only dams that let the water flow freely. Damming might take years, but could pack a powerful message for Pakistan to mend its ways.
Also Read: Kashmir simmers but Pakistan’s game has no winners
This is a long-range form of coercive diplomacy, the power of which must not be underestimated. While a military strike at terror camps, as India undertook after the Pulwama attack of 2019, has the advantage of target specificity, the threat of a water-squeeze has not been tested.
Also Read: Mint Explainer: India puts Indus Waters Treaty on ice—what’s at stake for both sides
Islamabad may try to seek legal recourse, but in global affairs, as we often see in battles, the high ground matters. And in this case, it’s clear that India holds it.
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