J.D. Vance can’t afford any diplomatic slip-up on his visit to India
Summary
- The US vice-president isn’t known for decorous language abroad, but India expects its sensitivities to be respected. Decorum must be maintained for India-US relations to move forward.
When US Vice-President J.D. Vance touched down in India on Monday, many were wondering what kind of controversy he might stir during his short visit. He met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday evening as part of his agenda, as the two nations work toward a bilateral trade deal.
Like every other country besides China, India has been spared the full force of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs for 90 days. But the clock is ticking: Washington is pressing ahead with its trade war and ramping up efforts to isolate Beijing. If an agreement isn’t reached by the end of that timeframe, the US is threatening to increase the 10% tariffs on Indian exports to 26%.
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Economic coercion is rarely the best way to make friends. The duties could deal a $33 billion blow to the South Asian nation’s export market to the US, translating into an almost 1% loss in GDP. This would aggravate an already slowing economy, just as the Modi government faces scrutiny over job creation, a vulnerability that opposition parties would be happy to highlight.
For Vance, this is an opportunity to soften a global image as Trump’s spearhead. It is his first visit to India since taking office. He made his debut on the world stage in France and Germany in February, when he shocked allies by saying that the biggest threat to their security was “from within," rather than from China and Russia.
He has also triggered outrage in Asia, calling Chinese people “peasants" in criticisms about economic engagement with Beijing. In response, officials in the world’s second-largest economy branded him as “impolite."
That reputation may not go down well in India, a country that views itself as a rising power in its own right and doesn’t want to be viewed as a junior partner of the West. One area of common ground, superficial as it may be, is immediately visible. Vance’s wife Usha—the daughter of Indian immigrants from the southern state of Andhra Pradesh—is accompanying him.
Local media described Vance as “India’s son-in-law" and his visit “a homecoming of sorts." But what role, if any, Usha Vance will play to smoothen ties between the two nations is unclear.
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Right now, Modi [seems to have] little choice but to comply with Trump’s demands. The US president has in the past labelled India a “tariff king," a moniker that isn’t entirely undeserved. The country has some of the highest trade barriers in Asia, although the Indian leader attempted to address those during a recent trip to Washington.
The Modi government has lowered tariffs on some American goods, promised to crack down on illegal immigration and proposed plans to buy more energy and equipment from the US. Currently, Russia is the main supplier of both to India, and the US has long been eager to edge out Moscow.
For his part, Trump may want to take advantage of his strong working relationship with Modi to reach a deal that will advance his America First agenda, while New Delhi will hope to be an equal partner, not simply a convenient one.
Still, India may also be negotiating from a potential position of strength. It is increasingly being viewed as an alternative to China as a large manufacturer, despite legitimate concerns over bureaucracy, corruption and creaky infrastructure. The country is also a vital player in the geopolitical competition between Washington and Beijing.
Trump appears to be trying to box Beijing in, but the best way would be to get allies on board. Consistent foreign and economic policy would help: Trade between the two nations surpassed $190 billion in 2023, making the US India’s largest trading partner, overtaking China. They have also set an ambitious target of more than doubling their trade to $500 billion by 2030.
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Vance’s India visit opens up a host of new ways to bring more predictability to a relationship that has often been volatile. A formal trade deal will help, but India would also like to see some willingness to give more access to citizens and companies to the US market. Historically, this has been a key priority, but it is also politically sensitive for Trump.
On defence, there are a number of good options. The White House could accelerate approvals and licensing to trusted allies and partners like New Delhi. India could re-prioritize the focus of its $78 billion defence budget and buy more American weapons and technology. This would help cement the argument that like-minded countries are working together to act as a buffer in the competition against China in the Indo-Pacific.
India is open to cooperation, but not always on someone else’s terms. Vance would be wise to mind his manners while he’s there. ©Bloomberg
The author is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China.
