Zero-day terror in Kashmir: National security needs an AI upgrade

India, a nuclear-armed state with one of the world’s largest armies and a formidable intelligence network, failed to foresee an attack in one of its most heavily patrolled and sensitive regions. 

This is India’s ‘zero-day’ event, a cybersecurity term that refers to a previously unknown vulnerability exploited by attackers before it’s patched. Kashmir’s picturesque façade had, perhaps, lulled policymakers into a misplaced sense of normalcy. But beneath it lay dormant terror networks waiting for their opportunity.

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The question India must now ask is this: How can India predict and prevent the next attack? The answer is not just more boots on the ground, but more intelligence, better integration and superior technology. India must make a decisive shift towards AI-enhanced national security.

India’s counterterrorism strategy remains a mix of centralized intelligence agencies and military deployment in volatile areas like Jammu and Kashmir. But this system is often reactive, bureaucratic and siloed. It is good at response, but weak at prediction.

Moreover, the focus in Kashmir in recent years has tilted toward infrastructure development and tourism promotion. While such soft power strategies are essential, they must go with upgraded surveillance and threat anticipation mechanisms. Baisaran, accessible only by foot or horseback and surrounded by thick forest, went unguarded—a perfect target for asymmetric warfare.

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Israel offers one model. Its intelligence agency, Unit 8200, leverages AI to analyze phone metadata, satellite imagery and online communication to detect anomalies. These are cross-referenced with historical patterns of insurgent activity, allowing the Israeli Defense Forces to pre-empt attacks with precision. Its smart border systems, powered by thermal imaging and computer vision, can detect and classify movement—human, animal or vehicular—within seconds. In high-risk zones, these tools are not experimental but operational.

The US, particularly through its Department of Defense’s Project Maven, uses AI to analyze drone footage in real time. It can identify vehicles, weapons and human activity in conflict zones in a flash. Combined with Generative AI’s natural language processing (NLP) systems that monitor forums, encrypted platforms, deep web chatter, etc, US counterterrorism forces can often intercept plots before they become operations. 

Plus, agencies like the National Security Agency and Department of Homeland Security use predictive policing tools that flag domestic and foreign threats based on behavioural analytics and travel history—tools that are controversial but effective in high-stake security scenarios.

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India, with its vast pool of AI talent, not to mention military R&D capacity, could build and deploy such systems. Here are five AI applications that will serve the country well.

Predictive modelling: AI can detect anomalies in movement patterns, communication behaviour and online activity. Unusual visits to forests, encrypted group chats discussing sensitive areas, or route mapping can all trigger early warnings.

Drone intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance: Autonomous aerial craft equipped with computer vision can patrol valleys like Baisaran and alert command centres to suspect gatherings, gunfire or unauthorized movement.

Facial recognition and biometric verification: AI can cross-check surveillance camera footage from bus stations, hotels and shrines against watch-lists.

Social media and dark web monitoring: NLP-powered systems should scan the web for coded language, propaganda or radicalization narratives in local languages.

Smart border defence: Thermal and radar-based AI systems must be deployed in terrain-accessible infiltration zones, with alerts routed through a centralized AI-powered military operation centre.

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Adopting AI isn’t just about buying new software or hardware. It requires institutional transformation, for which India could establish a National AI Command Centre—a nodal agency that integrates data from all agencies and sources. For best results, AI must combine with human judgement. Equally important is the question of civil liberties. As AI systems can be misused or biased, there must be legal safeguards, ethical frameworks and parliamentary oversight, particularly over civilian surveillance.

The Baisaran Valley attack should be treated as a wake-up call for a technology upgrade for an era in which algorithms shape war outcomes. Diplomatic measures are necessary but not sufficient. While expulsions and visa cancellations, plus the Indus Waters Treaty held in abeyance, all send out a strong geopolitical signal, these moves may be unable to stop the next attack.

A new doctrine must emerge—one that places AI at the centre of national security, not just as a tool, but as an integral part of operations. From space-based to drone surveillance, from behavioural analytics to cyber intelligence, AI can help India do what it couldn’t do in Pahalgam: See it coming.

The author is a national security analyst, a podcast host and the author of ‘India in a New Key: Nehru to Modi’.