What Bengal thinks today, India thinks tomorrow,” said Gopal Krishna Gokhale, political leader and social reformer of the late 19th century.
Perhaps we can update those words to ‘What Kerala does today, India will have to do tomorrow.’
The reason? In a first, at least in nominal terms, the newly elected Congress government in Kerala has set up a department for the elderly.
It aims to assure the ageing dignity, welfare, protection, care and active participation in society.
Thanks to a combination of good healthcare and high literacy, especially of women, the state has seen a steady decline in its fertility rate along with increased longevity. Its demographic profile today resembles that of Western countries.
The result? Kerala is India’s most rapidly ageing state. Its dependency ratio—i.e., of people aged zero to 14 and over 65 to its 15-64 working-age population—is among the highest in India, even as its per capita income ranks ninth.
Kerala has become old before it could get rich, forcing the state to make hard choices.
Right now, Kerala might be an outlier. But it is only a matter of time before other Indian states face a similar predicament.
According to India’s 2021 Population Projection Report, our count of senior citizens (60 and above) is projected to more than double from 100 million in 2011 to 230 million by 2036.
While Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and southern states have larger proportions of the elderly than others, there are wide regional disparities that are expected to widen before they narrow.
The danger to India’s economy is that our much-touted demographic dividend—the potential growth we can enjoy as a result of having a large share of people in the productive age-group—could become a liability as our overall ratio of dependence turns adverse.
Research shows that demographic windows of opportunity can close quickly if countries do not adjust policies suitably.
A Carnegie Endowment study, ‘India’s Unfinished Demographic Dividend,’ notes that policy must first focus on the creation of high-quality human capital.
It must then expand employment access, especially for women and marginalized groups, before shifting focus to healthy ageing and elderly support. India is in its mid-window phase.
By around 2051, our chance will begin to close. Sadly, evidence of policy- response plans is scant.
Rising pension payouts to government and public-sector employees weigh heavily on public coffers, while enlarged spending on healthcare and social security—even if paltry at the individual level—leaves states with little to invest in infrastructure.
The study points out that ageing states such as Kerala and Punjab have struggled to stabilize their workforce while securing older residents, with the result that they now rank in the lowest tier of Niti Aayog’s 2026 Fiscal Health Index.
Their early demographic success led to longer lives but left them in a fiscal trap of higher expenses and lower revenue they find hard to escape.
Kerala’s newly minted department for the elderly is a wake-up call for India’s other states.
It’s only a matter of time before they too experience the same change in the age structure of their population as Kerala and other states ahead of the pack. Fertility rates are in decline, even if unevenly across states, while longevity is on the ascent.
States had better be prepared. They should cut wasteful spending (like on freebies) to focus on a reserve fund designed to meet the demands of an ageing society.