Mint Explainer: What intelligence leaks reveal about Pakistan’s ties with the US

Mint breaks down the development.

• Khar’s memo, titled ‘Pakistan’s Difficult Choices’ was the subject of a Washington Post report, part of its ongoing investigation into the leaked intelligence documents, which first appeared on popular messaging platforms such as Discord in April.
• As the Post points out, it is unclear how US intelligence agencies acquired the memo. Since the leaks American intelligence has faced criticism, particularly from allies such as South Korea, for intercepting communications of senior lawmakers to ascertain their position on the war in Ukraine.
• In the memo, Khar argues that walking the middle path between the US and China will become increasingly difficult for Pakistan. She also reportedly argued that Islamabad’s push to preserve its partnership with the US would prevent it from fully leveraging its “real strategic" partnership with Beijing.
• Khar’s memo, written in March, points to a real challenge for Pakistan’s foreign policy. Once a key recipient of US economic and military aid, Pakistan’s relationship with America has fallen on hard times.
• At one level, the ties still hold. The two countries’ crucial defense and national-security relationship saw some movement when Washington provided a $450-million sustainment package for Pakistan’s fleet of F-16 fighters in 2022. The US also gave upwards of $100 million in humanitarian relief and assistance after Pakistan was hit by devastating floods.
• However, since the fall of Afghanistan and America’s broader pivot to the Indo-Pacific, Pakistan’s value as a strategic partner for Washington has declined.
• This strategic drift was best exemplified by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman’s comments. “We (the US) don’t see ourselves building our broad relationship with Pakistan and we have no interest in returning to the days of a hyphenated India and Pakistan. That’s not where we are, that’s not where we are going to be," she said.
• Matters have not been helped by high-level political disagreements. Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan accused a mid-ranking US diplomat of conspiring to have his government overthrown, while US President Joe Biden inadvertently described Pakistan as “maybe one of the most dangerous nations in the world", igniting a controversy.
• China, which has built an ever-stronger political, economic and defence relationship with Pakistan, seems to be the immediate beneficiary of the US-Pakistan estrangement.