Is China’s economic slowdown simply a sign of its economy’s maturity? Large economies do tend to grow slower and its GDP was placed at almost $20 trillion in 2025, roughly two-thirds of America’s.
Yet, Beijing isn’t very used to seeing numbers fall short of projections, so its latest official data showing growth of just 4.3% in the quarter till June over the same period last year may have evoked a measure of consternation. In the previous quarter, China had grown 5%, a pace touching the upper end of its 4.5-5% annual target. This is the lowest goal it has set since 1991—and it risks being missed.
Given its economy’s size, this slump may seem natural, but the country has been dealing with a swelter of problems. Oversupply, as evident in weak prices, is key among them. With many export markets reaching saturation, domestic consumption has been too soft to pick up the slack. Its trade reliance thus persists, even though its exports may be outliving their welcome in many countries.
Yet, its tech catch-up with the US has been dramatic. The successful test of its Long March 10B reusable rocket, with a truly innovative landing cradle, has signalled its space ambitions. Slower growth isn’t slowing China’s rise.