With war clouds strengthening headwinds from tariff turmoil, Indian exports have been under pressure. This shows in trade figures for June released on Monday.
As recorded by the government, India’s outward shipments fell to $40.4 billion last month from $45.2 billion in May. Imports fell less, to $70.8 billion in June from $73.4 billion in May. As a result, the goods trade gap widened to $30.4 billion from $28.2 billion. A services export surplus of $15.1 billion does not make up for that.
How these numbers shift could depend much on whether West Asia returns to all-out hostility between Iran and the US-Israel combine. That said, India has taken some significant steps forward on securing trade deals. Its pact with the UK, for example, comes into force on 15 July and could uplift both goods and service exports. Other deals, including one with the EU, hold promise.
Washington has been pushing New Delhi hard to make concessions for an India-US trade deal, with a probe of alleged Indian labour-related violations acting as a tariff threat, but its legal basis is hazy. While stable trade ties with the US are a vital pursuit, other pacts mean India can hold out for well-balanced terms.