After numerous false dawns, the US and Iran have both declared that they’ve reached a framework agreement to end their war. Both have affirmed news of a document to be signed on Friday that would presumably not just call off hostilities but set out a path to enduring peace via a final deal.
That the Strait of Hormuz may now be set to reopen, a point that America sought to emphasize, led a wave of relief around the world, even though what the agreement’s text says is awaited. On its part, Tehran highlighted how the US blockade of its trade would be lifted. For the global economy, this prospect of normalcy is significant enough.
Other issues, such as Israel’s actions in Lebanon, Iran’s nuclear programme and US sanctions on Iran, are enveloped in uncertainty that could potentially disrupt what’s likely to be a process rather than an event.
Complexity arises from the evident need of both sides to present a stalemate as a victory to their people. With some mutual empathy, that may not be impossible. The US might only need to claim that Iran has sworn off nukes, which Tehran has averred were never its aim, while its adversary may require an easing of Washington’s economic squeeze to hold aloft.