The sudden twists in West Asia peace talks underscore just how fluid the situation is. On Friday, Iran showed some keenness to engage with the US as it declared the Strait of Hormuz open, but only to slam it shut again the next day.
Since then, Tehran has professed itself unready to hold truce talks with the US. Not only was America making excessive and shifting demands, it argued, its blockade of Iranian ports was a violation of the ceasefire due to expire only on 22 April.
To make matters between the two adversaries worse, this week began with armed US action against an Iranian commercial vessel. A furious Tehran took that as a provocation it could not let pass, calling off parleys in Pakistan’s capital with an American delegation to be led by Vice President J.D. Vance.
Suspense surrounds what will happen next, as bluffing and bluff-calling have become part of the drama we’ve seen unfold. What is evident to the world is that the warring parties can’t be allowed to slip back into armed conflict.
The risks cannot be dismissed by either side. Such deadlocks are hard to break if both combatants consider themselves victorious. This is exactly why mediation efforts may need to play the role of illusion popper.
Right now, it’s unclear if enough has been done to acquaint either side with the grim reality of war. In an almost schoolyard sense, it has become a theatre of absurd maximalism.
Optics have rarely mattered as much as they now seem to, with neither in a position to appear weakened by war. What they may both be right about are the stakes.