Mint Quick Edit | Will heat deliver a torrential monsoon this year?

By IMD’s measure, rainfall will be 106% of the long-period average, with a model error of 4%.  (AFP)
By IMD’s measure, rainfall will be 106% of the long-period average, with a model error of 4%. (AFP)

Summary

  • While many parts of India are reeling under a heatwave, IMD expects above-normal rainfall during 2024’s rainy season. There’s also a Pacific pivot away from El Nino that may mean more rain. Hopefully inflation control will be easier.

While many parts of India are reeling under a heatwave, it’s a matter of relief that monsoon rain prospects this year are bright. The country is expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the June-September rainy season, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. 

By IMD’s measure, rainfall will be 106% of the long-period average, with a model error of 4%. To be sure, Mohapatra’s statement only reiterates what the IMD had predicted earlier. But extreme heat conditions had led to questions if the forecast needed revision. Temperatures have soared to nearly 50° Celsius in parts of northwest India, with the mercury looking up for the next few days. 

Also read: IMD retains above normal monsoon forecast, June temperature seen to be above normal

We can expect some easing after 30 May, according to the weather department. A hotter-than-usual landmass creates air vacuums that draw monsoon winds with even more suction force from above the seas. This time, another factor might be in play: a pivot in the Pacific Ocean from El Niño to La Niña. If it happens soon enough, it could possibly spell an even wetter season. How various forces interact is hard to predict, but inflation control seems likely to be less of a headache this year.

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