India must watch out as the world’s security architecture shudders and shifts
Nato’s future is cloudy, even if its latest summit tried to convey success. Non-Nato powers have their own axes to grind, as recent times have shown. Amid all this flux, India must aim for self-reliance—especially in arming itself for national defence.
The annual meeting of Nato, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, took place in The Hague last week against the backdrop of a world moving towards a new and fluid security architecture. Thirty of Nato’s 32 current members are European, with the US and Canada being its two North American members.
Born in 1949 soon after World War II, the original raison d’être of Nato was containment of the Soviet Union and its role as a hedge against the remilitarization of Germany. Once West Germany joined in 1955, the second objective was dropped. After the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, Germany was reunited in 1990 and the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Nato’s purpose was lost for nearly two decades.
With Vladimir Putin’s rise in Russia at the beginning of the 21st century and particularly after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Nato members found common cause again, and the alliance regained some of its mojo. The Ukrainian conflict that began in 2022 united Nato again. Finland and Sweden, which had remained outside for seven decades, have joined the alliance since.
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Beginning with Donald Trump’s first US presidency in 2017 and continuing into his second one now, Washington has been indifferent towards Ukraine and shown an unexplained sympathy for Russia’s position. President Trump has also publicly declared his ambivalence towards Article 5 of Nato, its “collective defense" clause that states that an attack against any member requires all members to come to its aid. Whether Trump’s disposition is just a threat aimed at making European members increase their contributions to Nato remains unclear.
Nato is resourced through the direct and indirect national contributions of its members. Nato’s common funds are composed of direct contributions to collective budgets and programmes. National contributions, the largest component of Nato funding, include the forces and capabilities held by each member country that can be provided to Nato for deterrence and defence activities and military operations. Direct funds enable Nato to maintain its capabilities and run the entirety of the organization and its military commands.
Nato has three principal common-funded budgets: the civil budget (funding the Nato headquarters), military budget (funding the Nato Command Structure) and the Nato Security Investment Programme (funding military infrastructure and capabilities). For 2025, its direct funds amount to about $5.4 billion, of which the US contributes about 16% (an identical amount is contributed by Germany).
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The main discussion at this year’s Nato summit was about European members committing to raise their defence expenditure to 5% of GDP by 2035: 3.5% for core military needs and 1.5% for broader security needs like infrastructure and cybersecurity.
If all 30 European countries were to do it, annual defence spending would double from $380 billion today to about $750 billion. The latter number is just a bit lower than the current US defence spending and comparable to China’s unofficial level. The summit ended with a firm commitment from Nato allies to spend 5% of GDP, up from today’s 2% floor.
Whether or not America officially quits Nato, even if it psychologically ‘checks out,’ the security architecture of Europe would change dramatically without an assured American backstop. At the same time, there are tensions among European Nato members, with Hungary publicly supporting Russia and Turkey playing a nuanced ménage-à-trois game. The new nationalist president of Poland is also likely to hold a more matrix-determined position than his predecessor.
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While there are other multi-country strategic groupings like the Quad, made up of the US, India, Japan and Australia, and Aukus, made up of Australia, the US and UK, no other multi-country alliance has shown the commitment and staying power of Nato (till Trump came along).
Even traditional alliances have become more situation-dependent in recent times. China has generally supported Pakistan and Russia has supported India since Cold War times. At the same time, China has supported Russia on the Ukraine War.
During the recent Operation Sindoor, both Russia and the US were ambivalent in their support of India. Turkey, while pursuing its own calculus, has held positions that are inimical to Indian interests in recent years. Even more recently, Iran must have been surprised that Russia did not come to its defence more publicly during its 12-day conflict with Israel.
Also Read: Mint Explainer: Sweden set to join NATO after Turkey backs off
Alert to the possibility that a US commitment to their security is no longer reliable (and that the US may even turn hostile), countries from Japan and South Korea to Germany are re-arming themselves. In addition to nuclear-equipped France and the UK, Nato’s nuclear sharing arrangements extend to Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. Beyond Nato, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) promulgated in 1969, with 191 current members, is likely to lose some members over the coming years.
India is entering a phase where it will have to become far more self-reliant, even as it partners with Russia, the US and others on a context-specific basis. When India purchases defence systems, it will have to insist on technology transfers, source-code access and the interoperability of these platforms with locally developed missile systems.
P.S: “If you have one true friend, then you have more than your share," said clergyman Thomas Fuller.
The author is chairman, InKlude Labs. Read Narayan’s Mint columns at www.livemint.com/avisiblehand
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