Optimism is scarce in our mega-threatened world
- The world economy faces a ‘polycrisis’ as the Great Moderation recedes further and a Great Stagflation threat looms large. Growth is harder to achieve and inflation harder to quell because covid supply snarls were accompanied by shifts from free trade to secure trade and efficiency to resilience.
Since the publication of Megathreats in October 2022, the themes I emphasized have gone mainstream. Everyone now acknowledges that economic, monetary and financial threats are rising and interacting in dangerous ways with various other social, political, geopolitical, environmental, health and technological developments. Hence, in December 2022, the Financial Times chose “polycrisis" as one of its buzzwords of the year. Whatever one’s preferred term (others have adopted “permacrisis" or “confluence of calamities"), there is growing recognition that not only the global economy, but also human survival is at risk.