Playing the Trump card

Even in his defeat, Donald Trump proved to be unpredictable and unwilling to stick to social norms. Across the world, as a bitterly contested US presidential election finally reached its conclusion with Joe Biden declared a historic winner, there was palpable relief. We witnessed two septuagenarians with competing philosophies submit to electoral judgment against the backdrop of a pandemic. Biden’s historic win sets the stage for the restoration of institutional dignity after the shenanigans of the Trump era. But it would be a folly to overlook the lessons learnt from Trump. The truth is that his underlying message still resonates with millions.

Four years ago, Donald Trump made an astute electoral pitch to ‘Make America Great Again’ which proved a winner. He appealed to the ‘forgotten majority’, workers across the rust-belt, putting their concerns uppermost in a battle against the Washington insiders. The irony of a billionaire staking an anti-establishment prospectus was part of the appeal. Trump was clear in his aim to reduce immigration, advance at protectionist trade policy and realign foreign policy. He elevated bombast to stratospheric levels and turned convention on its head.

In an age where politicians are notorious for breaking manifesto commitments, Trump sought to act as he promised. No one should be surprised that Trump took a hard line on immigration, signed executive orders to support domestic products, left the Trans-Pacific Partnership, withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, challenged The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and exited the Paris climate change accord. He had outlined an ‘America First’ vision where multilateralism was deemed surplus to requirements. Also, more than any world leader, it was Trump who dared to be muscular with China. It was during his presidency that there were overtures to North Korea and an entente achieved between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

That said, it was hard to ignore the manifest coarseness that marked Trump’s presidency. His strong-man tendencies had more in common with autocrats such as Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban than a ‘leader of the free world’. His time in office widened divisions. Global alliances were scorned. His inept handling of a pandemic that resulted in over 200,000 deaths with bluster dominating reason jarred badly with voters. It was understandable, therefore, that a majority of Americans chose to repose their faith in a return to steadiness and reconciliation offered by Biden.

Does this mean that the election was a repudiation of Trumpism? The reality is that while Trump was defeated, Trumpism continued to resonate. The result was far from the landslide Biden win that most pollsters had predicted. In fact, Trump received 70 million votes in this election. He increased his epic 2016 return by about 4 million votes. In other words, even in defeat, his popularity continued to rise. His substantial achievement lies in converting the Republican Party from its country club elitism to a mainstream blue collar party. The other understated facet about Trumpism is that his message of self-reliance, entrepreneurism and liberty was capable of resonating with minority groups that probably felt too shy to say so publicly. It explains his win in Florida, for example, where the Hispanic community tilted the balance—against expectations—in his favour.

Millions of Americans noted that he oversaw record job-creation till the global pandemic came along. They also acknowledged his pitch that stifling restrictions would not aid a recovery. They liked Trump’s assertiveness on China as evidence of his ‘America First’ credentials. On the economy, they took to heart his warning that Biden’s plans for raising taxes would constrain innovation and choke off a recovery.

These are messages that Biden cannot afford to ignore. During the campaign, Biden managed to keep unreconstructed leftists on the sidelines but they will resurface with all manner of uncosted demands. He ought to govern firmly from the centre and rebuff any temptation to alter course sharply to the left. The incoming president will need to be clear about bipartisan trade-offs to ensure that a depression can be avoided. Overseas, while multilateral dialogue will strengthen, the core task must be to protect American interests. Biden will also need to be strong-minded against China, without plunging the world into a recessionary trade war.

From an Indian perspective, it is a reasonable assumption that Trump’s enthusiasm for ‘Howdy Modi?’ chants at mass rallies is unlikely to be matched by Biden. A Biden government is likely to provide more credible challenge to Modi’s policy moves. That said, the onus is on the Indian government to reach out to Biden and reset relationships. There is a convergence of strategic civil and military interests between the world’s biggest democracies that should underpin ties.

For now, a victory for Biden will be interpreted by many across the globe as a welcome end to the undignified soap opera of the Trump presidency. It marks a return to civility and decency after four years of turbulence. Yet, the anxieties of millions of voters that expressed themselves through Trump should not be forgotten. As Biden embarks on a mission to rebuild America, if he embraces a bipartisan agenda that accommodates all citizens, it would truly be a victory for the renewal of the American dream.

Rishabh Bhandari is a London-based lawyer and political commentator.