Ulrich Siegmund, who led the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) to a huge victory in weekend elections in the eastern province of Saxony-Anhalt, cuts a charismatic figure.
The 35-year-old, who usually wears an open-neck shirt and jeans, drives an East German moped called the Simson and is followed by supporters in the former East German province driving motorcycles made in East Germany before the country’s 1990 unification, with a Trabant car making an odd appearance.
This heavy dose of nostalgia for a re-imagined glorious past is, of course, part of the appeal of right-wing populists everywhere, but Siegmund’s press affairs secretary and other aides have well-documented links to a group modelled on the Hitler Youth. German magazine Der Spiegel named him “Germany’s Most Dangerous Politician” in its preview of the recently concluded election.
Much of Europe has endured a summer of extreme weather events, including droughts and raging wildfires, and its political environment faces right-wing earthquakes in the next couple of years.
In France, polls show National Rally leader Marine Le Pen consistently ahead of contenders in the race for a presidential election due in April. Germany’s federal election is not till 2029, but after the disastrous showing this weekend of his coalition, Chancellor Friedrich Merz is almost certain to face a leadership challenge.
In the UK, a run of financial scandals involving the Reform UK party led by Nigel Farage may have temporarily halted its ascendancy, but wins in local council elections across the UK cost Keir Starmer his job this summer, scarcely two years into his term.
There are lessons and challenges ahead for India as Europe faces such convulsions. Both immigration to and trade with these countries promises to become harder, no matter what the trade agreements of New Delhi with the EU and UK might say.
Already, first the Conservative government and now Labour, after constant heckling from the political right and rightist rabble rousers such as Tommy Robinson, have raised hurdles for post-study employment in the UK.
The minimum salary requirement for a skilled work visa is now £41,700. In 2021, as part of a more liberal immigration system to make up for a shortfall in European workers post-Brexit, the salary threshold was reduced to £26,000.
Europe faces the prospect of polycrises, the word first used by a French sociologist in the 1990s, as states try to reduce pension costs and public debt while grappling with China’s aggressive subsidies for its carmakers and capital goods manufacturers. In Germany, large sections of its Mittelstand are being hammered by China’s mercantilism.
Meanwhile, Germany’s large companies must avoid a similar fate with their hands tied behind their backs. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported on a battle between Volkswagen’s CEO and its board, which is stacked with union representatives and government officials.
The state of Lower Saxony, which shares a border with Saxony-Anhalt, owns 20% of the carmaker’s voting shares. CEO Oliver Blume wants to cut about 100,000 jobs amid competition from China’s electric vehicle industry.
Instead of support from the government, he has effectively faced a rival power centre. As the WSJ reported recently, “[Lower Saxony premier] Olaf Lies, one of the Volkswagen board members who voted against Blume’s plan, embarked on a tour of [Volkswagen] factories that the CEO has said might not be needed.”
Layoffs at Volkswagen are Olaf Lies’ (and indeed every centrist politician’s) business as he tries to head off the AfD threat. As a paper from Berlin’s Humboldt University cited by The Economist in December explains, the AfD does well in regions “where manufacturing levels are historically high and industrial decline is looming.”
This is precisely the dynamic that propelled President Donald Trump to power in the US after areas in the US midwest and south suffered de-industrialization. Against this challenging backdrop, compounded by Chinese mercantilism, is the toxic mix of support for right-wing parties from the White House and Elon Musk’s X platform.
Last year, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President J.D. Vance met AfD leader Alice Weidel but not then Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He lectured Europe on its supposed need to clamp down on immigration, free speech and ‘enemies within.’ “The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China,” he said.
The AfD would heartily concur. Its ties with Russia are so close that Germany’s security agency is unlikely to share classified information with Siegmund or its other leaders. In anticipation of an AfD victory, a key Russian official had posted on X: “Germany Awakens on September 6th!”
As Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman pointed out this week, both the timing and the wording are significant: “‘Germany Awake!’ was a Nazi slogan.” That post appeared on 23 August, the anniversary of the 1939 pact between Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Soviet Union. The AfD wants to end German aid to Ukraine and extend Russian language training in Germany’s schools.
The ‘axis of evil’ that threatens liberal democracy needs to be redefined. Ironically, the US, Russia and China are each playing a role in making liberal democracies quake.
The author is a former Financial Times foreign correspondent.