Rainfall last week came as good news for Indian agriculture staring at one of the worst droughts of this century. June ended with a 40% deficit in rainfall, which was the fifth worst in more than century. Better-than-usual rain in July has reduced this deficit to 17%, as of 8 July.
That said, the predictions are not optimistic. The India Meteorological Department has forecast rains at 94% of the normal level at best. June covers roughly 19% of the monsoon season rainfall (June-September), while July covers almost 32%.
What matters for Indian agriculture, which still relies on seasonal rainfall to a great extent since irrigation covers only half of India’s cultivated land, is not just the aggregate quantum of rainfall but also its geographic spread. This is partly because of unevenly spread irrigation facilities.
These are concentrated in the north-western part of the country and some coastal states. But a large proportion of farms are still rain-fed. These areas have low agricultural productivity and some also have high poverty. A rainfall deficit in places where irrigation is available does not affect agricultural output much.
But any deficit in rain-fed areas does not just have a direct impact, as it curtails output, but also indirect consequences through inflation, employment and livelihoods.
Meteorological subdivision data shows a rainfall deficit of more than 50% in Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh, and of 38% in Jharkhand. These are the most populous areas of the country but also among those with the lowest agricultural productivity and highest poverty.
Several other major agricultural zones, in north-west India and Marathwada for example, are experiencing high deficits. Another cause of worry for policymakers is the fast decline in water levels in reservoirs. Many states in the southern part of India have seen these decline fast. The reported levels stand lower than in recent years. This has implications for irrigation.
The impact of this year’s monsoon deficit is already visible in sowing data. The latest update released on 6 July showed sowing has been 21% lower than last year—it is 13% lower in the case of rice, 22% for pulses, 39% for oilseeds and 23% for cotton.
While there is a possibility of some recovery in sowing, it is unlikely to be large, given that sowing in many areas has already happened. Even assuming some recovery, the growth of crops is likely to be hurt by inadequate rainfall during germination.
It is highly likely that agricultural output will see a decline compared to last year, but also compared to the average of the past five years. Fortunately, adequate stocks of cereals are available to fill the shortfall in cereal production. But the same is not true for pulses and oilseeds. India is a large importer of these and a shortfall in sowing as well as production will probably increase this import dependence.
What requires utmost attention is the impact of weak rains on the lives and livelihoods of those directly engaged in agriculture, as well as those engaged in the rural non-farm sector. Protecting the income of farmers is essential, given the monsoon uncertainty and rise in input costs following the war in West Asia. This is also critical for India’s large number of workers in the rural non-farm sector.
The rural economy has been in distress on account of stagnant wages and incomes among cultivators. Any worsening of this distress will have a cascading impact on the overall economy, which has also been facing deficient demand. As inflation rises and disposable incomes get squeezed, spillover effects may be visible in urban India.
For the government, the priority should be to insulate farmers from a deficient monsoon while ensuring food security for vulnerable sections of the country’s population.
For the rural non-farm sector, which now accounts for more than half of all rural incomes, it will also be helpful to step up alternative avenues of employment generation.
While the newly enacted Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission Gramin law that assures people rural jobs has been implemented from 1 July, initial reports suggest uneven performance, given the reluctance of several state governments to roll out the scheme; this is a result of the increased financial commitment required from them.
Some of the worst affected are poorer states such as Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha, which are also reeling under a rainfall deficit. At a time when the rural economy is facing a serious threat of its distress getting worse, a good way to protect lives and livelihoods would be to increase public spending in rural areas and strengthen the rural employment guarantee scheme.
The author is associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and visiting fellow at the Centre de Sciences Humaines, New Delhi.