Stabilizing our population calls for the empowerment of women

In April this year, India became the most populous country in the world, surpassing China. This was the cause for a lot of fear-mongering around India’s growing numbers, stemming purely from a misplaced understanding of population demographics and trends.

Such concerns are largely unwarranted as India has already achieved replacement-level fertility with an average Indian woman of reproductive age having two children during her lifetime. According to Census data, India’s population growth rate has been falling consistently over the decades. Currently, there are only five states (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Meghalaya and Manipur) where the total fertility rate (TFR) is above the replacement level of 2.1, which is the rate at which a population replaces itself from one generation to another. This means that we are on track for population stabilization.

Fertility rates: India’s continuous progress in achieving a more stable population is due to improving coverage of the country’s family planning programme and a focus on girls’ education, as well as changing socio-cultural factors, despite existing myths and misconceptions.

Sometimes, I read of concerns being expressed about Muslim fertility rates, and that Muslims are opposed to family planning. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Data shows that fertility is falling among all religious groups. In fact, Muslims registered the largest decline in fertility rate among religious groups in 2019-21 (National Family Health Survey-5) since 1992-93 (NFHS-1). It is also important to note that the religious composition of India’s population has remained largely stable since Independence. The reason why these views gain currency is a lack of understanding of what drives population and fertility. NFHS-5 data shows women’s education and household income play a crucial role in determining fertility rates. While women with no schooling have about three children on average, those with 12 or more years of schooling have less than two. Similarly, women from the lowest wealth quintile have a TFR of 2.63 children, whereas women from the highest quintile have a lower TFR of 1.57. Fertility levels vary depending on levels of education and income, and place of residence. The states that have invested in education for girls and provided better economic opportunities for women and strengthened reproductive health and family planning services show better fertility rates, irrespective of religion or caste. For instance, the fertility rates among Muslim women in better developed states are lower than that among Hindu women in less developed states.

The connection between women’s education and fertility is well established. With more Muslim families opting for girls’ education and family planning, the proportion of Muslim women who have had no schooling reduced from 32% in NFHS-4 to 21.9 % in NFHS-5. Data also shows strong commitment among Muslims in taking responsibility for family planning. All this is indicative of progressive attitudes toward women’s empowerment and family planning in the community.

Data also shows that the ‘wanted fertility rate’—an estimate of what the total fertility rate would be if all unwanted births were avoided—across all religious groups is less than the replacement level (2.1). This makes it clear that all women—irrespective of which religious group they belong to—want smaller families. However, not all women are able to use family planning services, due to a lack of agency or access, and many are therefore unable to realize their desired fertility goals. It is essential to resolve such roadblocks and bridge the gap between wanted fertility and actual fertility.

On a number of counts, such as women’s employment, India needs to ensure that more women acquire skills and join the workforce. There is a significant gender gap in current employment rates, with men three times (75%) more likely to be employed than women (25%) in the country.

Social change: India at heart remains a traditional society with traditional roles thrust on both men and women. This largely relegates women to household work and care functions, leaving the responsibility of earning to men. In a technology-driven environment where physical strength is no longer the most important requisite for a job, it may be a good idea to free both women—and men—from traditional role expectations that are no longer relevant.

A more gender-equitable environment helps women get an education and join the workforce, which in turn helps them delay marriage, choose if and when and how many children to have. It is also well established that working women have fewer children and greater bodily autonomy.

Even if in small measure, social norms that limit the roles of men and women are being redefined. India’s youth are aspiring high, and with education and employment, they are contributing to the economy.

Redoubled efforts towards ensuring girls’ education, skilling, the provision of quality family planning services, and accelerating gender equity and women’s empowerment will go a long way in keeping us on our current path of population stabilization.

Dr. Fauzia Khan is a Member of Parliament.