We need global coalitions to mitigate the risk of events that are very unlikely but devastating all the same
In June 2019, if someone had warned us about a global pandemic that would bring the world to a standstill for months, we would’ve dubbed him or her a scaremonger, and such a pandemic a highly improbable event. Having lived through one, it now seems inevitable. Oddly, both reactions are sensible. Until it occurs, we don’t take it seriously, because the covid pandemic is a low-probability event—what we statistically describe as a tail risk. But one important lesson of 2020 is that we should take tail risk mitigation more seriously.
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