The futility of war in the 21st century is starkly evident

The events of the first three decades of the 21st century bear an alarmingly similarity to those of the 20th. The broad pattern is that of political calm, an economic boom and regulatory complacency, followed by a deflationary recession, global pandemic and regional conflict. Political and economic uncertainty gives rise to populist and fascist governments around the world. And the ensuing fiscal response in the developed world leads to inflation and more regional conflict. While the pattern is not identical, it rhymes to a great extent. Are we on the verge of a World War?

There are, of course, important distinctions. The most important one is that nuclear bombs were developed (and deployed) at the end of that period in the 20th century and the world has learnt about their awesome destructive power. In a strange way, a nuclear detente has led to a proliferation of conventional warfare, be it border skirmishes, civil wars or superpower rivalry and regional conflicts.

Since the end of World War II, many conventional wars have taken place, such as the Korean Conflict (beginning 1945), War of India’s Partition (1947-48), Arab-Israel War of Partition (1948), Vietnam War (1955-75), Bay of Pigs Invasion (1961), Eritrean War of Independence (1961-1991), Bangladesh War of Liberation (1971), Yom Kippur War (1973), Lebanese Civil War (1975-) Kurdish-Turkish Conflict (1978-), Soviet-Afghan War (1978-1988), Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), Falklands War (1982), First Palestinian Intifada (1987-93), First Gulf War (1990-91), Second Palestinian Intifada (2000-05), Syrian Civil War (2011-) and the Second Gulf War (2003-11). Civil wars and coups, too numerous to mention here, contribute to the nearly 1,000 violent conflicts that have occurred over the past 80 years.

Most recently, of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022-) and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war add horrific chapters to humankind’s book on contemporary violence. Other areas in current conflict include Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijanis have pushed out resident Armenians from the Republic of Artsakh, and civil wars/regime shifts in Sudan, Amhara, Niger, Nigeria, Myanmar and Somalia. The Council on Foreign Relations maintains a current conflict tracker which reveals hot-spots in Europe, West Asia, the South China Sea and in North-eastern Africa. It conveniently ignores the fact that the US and Nato countries are simultaneously abettors and solvers of conflict in many places, and, in that sense, involved in almost all the ongoing conflicts around the world.

Another big difference is that today’s wars are generally about defending an identity or point of view, and less about the potential to make large territorial gains. Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union entered wars in the hope of gaining large territories. The Soviet Union succeeded in doing so for a good part of the 20th Century. Of course, Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and its claim to Ukraine as ‘Little Rus’ follow the 20th century pattern. So does China’s sweeping claim to several islands in the South China Sea. Except for Ukraine, most of these conflicts are remote borders (India and China for example) or sparsely populated/ uninhabited islands (China and Japan over Senkaku Islands). But the Palestine conflict and similar other recent conflagrations are more about an attempt to co-exist with dignity even if identities and beliefs diverge substantially.

So far, 21st century conflicts have been regional, with one or both sides being aided and abetted by money and materiel from arms-producing nations. And so too, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Russia receiving indirect fiscal support from China and munition supplies from Iran, and with Ukraine receiving money and arms from Nato countries. There is a lot of talk of Qatari aid money for Palestine having been siphoned off to fund the al-Qassam Brigades of Hamas and the al-Quds Brigade of the Islamic Jihad. Hamas has held political control of the Gaza Strip since 2007 and has fought several ‘wars’ with Israel already. Even though it began with an absolutist position on an Islamic Palestinian state over the whole region (with no space for Israel), in 2017 it modified its position in favour of a two-state solution on the lines of the pre-1967 borders.

Warfare in the 21st century resembles the tribalism that Samuel Huntington spoke about in his famous 1996 book, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order. He correctly predicted that much conflict in a post-Cold War world will arise from religious and cultural identities. He suggested that ideology-led wars were a 20th century aberration, and that the world would return to more primitive sources of conflict. Huntington has been widely critiqued for his cultural determinism, but alas, he has largely been proven right, at least in the three decades or so since the end of the Cold War.

Huntington’s descriptive accuracy does not imply that these conflicts will prove successful for the aggressors. The world appears to be entering a phase of lose-lose-lose wars, for the perpetrator, victim and abettors on both sides. The only winners appear to be global companies that make weapons and munitions.

P.S.: “The recent war, whose members have yet hardly died, loudly proclaims the bankruptcy of this use of hatred,” said Mahatma Gandhi once, drawing inspiration from The Mahabharata.