Demographic divide: Why an optimal balance of power is a challenge

Last Saturday, he promised to enact a law allowing only those with more than two children to contest local polls in Andhra. He is not alone. 

On Monday, Tamil Nadu chief minister M.K. Stalin suggested, not entirely in jest, that rather than the 16 forms of wealth enumerated in ancient Tamil texts which are traditionally invoked while blessing newly-weds, a new invocation should be for 16 children. 

Also read: ‘Have 16 kids’: Why MK Stalin joined Chandrababu Naidu in promoting larger families

This sea-change in attitudes to population control in two southern states masks a deeper and more worrisome issue: a growing north-south divide, not only in economic prosperity, but also in the sharing of political power, a rupture that could potentially strain our federal consensus.

Naidu and Stalin are only voicing the fears of many in the south (and perhaps in western states to an extent). Namely, that India’s long-overdue delimitation exercise—by which Lok Sabha representation will be rejigged—will further skew our already-skewed distribution of power among states. 

According to a paper published in September by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, the five southern states contributed more than 30% of India’s GDP. In contrast, they account for just 23.8% of the seats in the Lok Sabha. 

The imbalance between economic and political heft is bound to worsen, thanks to the remarkable success of southern states in population control. 

Partly as a result of higher literacy levels and greater social empowerment of women, the total fertility rate (TFR) of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu is only 1.73, below the national average of 2.1 and well below the 2.4 average TFR of the five big heartland states of north and central India: Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Jharkhand. 

Also read: India’s demographic journey: Three dividends we mustn’t let go of

Taken in conjunction with a 2002 decision of the Vajpayee government that called for delimitation to be undertaken following the “first census after 2026," this opens up a can of worms. Why? 

There is a distinct possibility that the Centre will not wait till 2031 for the next headcount, after covid broke the regularity of our decadal census due in 2021. 

Remember, the ruling BJP has a much stronger base in the north than in the south, where the party has made inroads only in Karnataka. Hence, any re-composition of Parliament based on updated population data will work in the BJP’s favour, notwithstanding its need for India to qualify as a truly representative democracy.

The underlying rationale of delimitation is indisputable. We must reduce, if not eliminate, the present inequity in representation, wherein MPs from populous states represent a much larger number of their countrymen than their counterparts from less populous states. 

But the flip side is that the resultant re-allocation of Lok Sabha seats among states will skew political power even more to northern and central states at the cost of those in the west and south, since the number of Lok Sabha representatives from the latter states is sure to fall in relative and possibly even absolute terms. 

Also read: The big threat to India’s demographic dividend

Meanwhile, thanks to faster output expansion in the south, their contribution to India’s economy has risen relative to other states. The resultant imbalance is bound to test our national and social fabric.