US President-elect Trump’s crackdown on immigration is likely to be highly disruptive

Immigration under President Joe Biden surged to levels unmatched in more than a century—an estimated net increase of 8 million migrants during his four years in office, with a majority crossing illegally, according to a Goldman Sachs report.

Biden was determined to reverse the harsh Trump 1.0 policies that limited both kinds of immigration. But Biden never conveyed it. There was no ‘Biden doctrine’ to help people understand why he believed more immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers could prove a net benefit.

Finally, after Trump killed a bipartisan immigration reform bill, Biden re-imposed tighter limits on the southern border, but it was too late to save the election for Democrats.

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Now the US finds itself with the highest foreign-born population in its history—over 15 —and a border that’s more porous than secure. And the electorate has proven susceptible to Trump’s rhetoric. As Trump prepares to deliver on his top priority, expect the actions that follow to be swift and ugly. Watch out for five things:

The Alien Enemies Act of 1798: Trump and his acolytes have described migrants as “invaders" and border crossings as an “invasion." He has said he will use this law to “remove all known or suspected gang members, drug dealers or cartel members from the United States."

The law so far has been used only in wartime, and Trump’s invocation would surely draw a legal challenge. But the Brennan Center for Justice has warned that the Act’s language is so broad that “a president might be able to wield the authority in peacetime as an end run around the requirements of criminal and immigration law."

Trump also has pledged to use the military and local law enforcement if necessary. There are prohibitions against that as well, but it’s anyone’s guess if they’ll be upheld.

Workplace raids: Tom Homan, Trump’s nominee for ‘border czar,’ has pledged to bring back workplace raids. Once a staple under earlier administrations, they were stopped by Biden.

Raids were disruptive to employers and sparked terror in immigrant communities, but Homan has said the message is one that needs to be sent. He has said he will start in Chicago. “If your Chicago mayor doesn’t want to help, he can step aside. But if he impedes us, if he knowingly harbours an illegal alien, I will prosecute him," he said.

Birthright citizenship: Trump has said that he intends to upend one of the most fundamental ideas about the US: that no matter where in the world your parents come from, if you are born here, you are an American. It is a principle specifically enshrined in the 14th Amendment.

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No president can override the Constitution with an executive order. But Trump could create havoc in the meantime by, as he has said he would, ordering the government to stop issuing Social Security numbers and passports to offspring of parents who cannot prove their legal status.

Refugee programmes: Biden reduced illegal border crossings partly by expanding programmes that allow legal ones. Think of his humanitarian parole policy. But the outgoing president has said he will not renew that authorization for the more than half-million immigrants who came from Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba and Nicaragua during his term.

Trump has called Biden’s version an “outrageous abuse of parole" and wants to end it. He may also seek to end or restrict Temporary Protected Status, which shields more than 800,000 immigrants from specific countries against deportation.

Dreamers: The lone carrot Trump has held out to Democrats is possible action to protect Dreamers—those brought to this country illegally as children, many of whom have grown old waiting for more than temporary protection in the only homeland they’ve ever known. How genuine is that offer? It’s up to Trump, whose record is mixed. He also held out a similar promise in his first term, only to go back on it.

Hardliners in Congress have already expressed reservations about further protections for ‘dreamers,’ whose status rests on an Obama 2012 executive order called Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA. The order provided a temporary shield from deportation and work permits. If Trump persists, expect him to extract maximum leverage from any deal.

It should be clear even to big doubters that Trump intends to follow through on what is now a decade-old pledge to crack down on immigration. But this time, he has a team in place with the experience and knowledge to follow through, however brutal it turns out, and also a conservative Supreme Court. That could make all the difference. ©Bloomberg

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