It’s an estimate that could make anyone gulp: 400 million. This is the number of Indians that the International Labour Organization (ILO) has warned are “at risk of falling deeper into poverty during the crisis” caused by covid-19. The figure is broadly consistent with front-page reports in Mint on Tuesday and Wednesday of massive job losses across India. The high count reflects the large proportion of citizens who earn their living in the informal sector. With no employment benefits, very few savings to fall back on, and a low ability to carry on working over the internet, they suffered a severe blow after India shut down on 25 March.
That livelihoods have been lost on a huge scale is beyond doubt. Mass impoverishment need not happen, though, if measures are taken in time to keep people from slipping into a situation where they are faced with starvation. We must avert such a tragic outcome of an economic freeze forced upon us by a deadly virus. Policy interventions for the short-term, such as food provisions, are underway and need to be enlarged. The harder part would be to provide sustained aid over the year. But this must also be done.
