The Houthi assault on global shipping

The USS Carney, a destroyer operating in the Red Sea, shot down no fewer than 14 attack drones launched from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen on Saturday. A British warship shot down a Houthi drone after it was dispatched to the region to protect commercial ships. This follows weeks of similar attacks that U.S. warships have felt obliged to intercept to protect themselves and other ships.

The Houthis have said their attacks are aimed at stopping Israeli vessels transiting the Red Sea, which is bad enough. But the missiles and drones are targeting commercial ships willy-nilly. On Friday a Houthi drone struck a Liberian-flagged ship in the Red Sea, and the Houthis launched two ballistic missiles, one of which struck another commercial ship.

The well-armed Houthis have long been a regional threat, but now they are becoming a global menace. They may be the strongest Iranian proxy, stronger even than Hezbollah. They are the only one with medium-range ballistic missiles and the only one to fire antiship ballistic missiles.

Their attacks are making the Red Sea nonnavigable, and major commercial shipping lines have announced they will cease sending ships into harm’s way. Maersk, the shipping giant, has stopped sending vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden that has become a Houthi fire zone.

This will have major economic consequences if it continues. It’s also another test for Western nations as the world’s bad actors try to foment as much trouble as they can. The U.S. has long used its warships to counter Iranian attempts to disrupt oil shipments through the Persian Gulf, and the Houthis have opened up another naval front.

The U.S. doesn’t want the conflict in the Middle East to expand, but the Navy is already engaged in defensive operations. The question is whether the U.S. and other Western navies are merely going to play defense and catch missiles as the Houthis set the terms of battle. Sooner or later a Houthi missile may get past U.S. naval defenses and kill American sailors. Then the White House will have little choice other than to strike back.

Reuters reports that the Saudis have asked the U.S. not to escalate because it wants calm in the Gulf region. The Kingdom doesn’t want to resume its draining war with the Houthis, and it has tried to improve relations with Iran. Yet the Saudis can’t expect the U.S. to protect Arab oil transportation while leaving the rest of the world’s shipping vulnerable to Houthi-Iranian missiles.

And make no mistake: Iran is ultimately responsible for this Houthi offensive. The Houthis retain some autonomy, but they wouldn’t be able to continue without the arms sent by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran activated the Houthis to further complicate U.S. support for Israel and pressure the West to pressure Israel to stop its defensive campaign against Hamas in Gaza.

All of this should influence the U.S. calculation of how to respond militarily. One option no doubt under consideration is to take out Houthi ammunition stores and missile-launch sites. Such an attack would have to be extensive, and perhaps over multiple days, to send the proper message. Pin-prick strikes like those the U.S. has conducted in response to Iranian militia attacks in Syria and Iraq would betray American weakness.

But even a major bombing response in Yemen would spare Iranian assets. Tehran might conclude that the U.S. fears escalation so much that it can keep its proxies in action on multiple fronts with impunity. Eventually Iran’s rulers have to know that their assets—military and nuclear—are at risk if they continue to foment disorder, attack U.S. allies, and target American bases or ships.

The expanding Houthi threat, like the Hamas massacre and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is another example of the disorder that spreads when U.S. deterrence fails. The restoration of deterrence is crucial to reducing the spread of global mayhem. It should be front-and-center in the U.S. presidential campaign.