Will Trump use force to stop Iran’s nuclear development?
Summary
Khamenei refuses to capitulate to U.S. threats. The time for diplomatic engagement may be over.
President Trump announced Monday that Iran had agreed to begin direct nuclear negotiations with the U.S. on April 12. “If they don’t make a deal," Mr. Trump said last month, “there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before." Soon after the president’s Monday remarks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied his claims, saying instead that “indirect high-level talks" would take place in Oman. “It is as much an opportunity as it is a test. The ball is in America’s court," Mr. Araghchi added, suggesting that U.S. concessions needed to be forthcoming.
It’s not clear whether Mr. Trump will accept an offer of third-party “proximity talks," to which the Biden administration agreed in 2023 when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected direct discussions with Washington. Nothing came of those talks, and throughout his presidency Mr. Biden significantly relaxed sanctions enforcement to induce Iran not to continue nuclear development. He and his senior aides worried that provocative actions—too much sanctions pressure or U.S. military action—might lead Mr. Khamenei to build an atomic bomb.
If Mr. Trump is similarly fearful of conflict, then protracted talks seem inevitable. For now the president is deploying his usual escalate-to-de-escalate playbook: Tough-to-swallow demands, compressed timelines, and military menace, including the deployment of two aircraft-carrier groups and B-2 bombers to the region.
But Mr. Khamenei doesn’t scare easily. He is a hardened revolutionary. He has survived an impoverished childhood, torturous imprisonment, a near-fatal bomb attack and the brutal internal politics of the Islamic Republic. In 35 years as supreme leader, he has overcome regime-rattling insurrections, economy-crippling sanctions and, most recently, devastating Israeli victories over Iranian proxies and air raids within Iran’s borders.
Mr. Khamenei maintains the defiance that has characterized his rule: “The U.S. and others must know that if they commit any malicious act against the Iranian nation, they will receive a severe blow," he said on March 21. At a time when Mr. Khamenei routinely castigates Arab potentates for their dependence on Washington, he can’t be seen capitulating to Mr. Trump.
Many Americans fail to understand that for Mr. Khamenei, getting bombed is preferable to giving up the bomb. The supreme leader knows that conceding Iran’s atomic program would anger his core supporters, particularly among the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. The sight of a 85-year-old man—known for decades for his willingness to cripple or kill his opponents—going wobbly in the face of Trumpian threats could provoke his constituents to take to the streets. The mullahs also understand that most Iranians despise them, and an internal insurrection could be around the corner if they are perceived as weak.
The White House should recognize that Iran’s offer of proximity talks demonstrates that Mr. Khamenei hasn’t been intimidated by Washington’s tactics. Forcing Americans to work through others and engage in diplomacy that runs the clock—all while leaving a nonmilitary resolution on the table—is entirely acceptable to Tehran. Mr. Trump worries the clerical regime more than Mr. Biden did, but such concern hasn’t approached knee-bending irresolution, or even behind-the-scenes eagerness for direct talks. Instead, Iranian leaders openly discuss their belief that recent regional convulsions and Mr. Trump’s return to power increase the importance of atomic arms. As Mr. Khamenei’s stooge and right-wing firebrand Hassan Rahimpour Azghadi emphasized on X on March 30, “If Iran had an atomic bomb, would Trump dare to repeatedly threaten to attack?"
The secret to the supreme leader’s longevity has been his blending of ideological determination with supple tactics. In a foreign crisis, he offers diplomacy abroad while, for example, easing up on female dress codes that could provoke nationwide demonstrations. Mr. Khamenei may well wait on nuclearization—all Western intelligence eyes are now on him. But he will continue to industrialize Iran’s nuclear-weapons capacity. The Islamic Republic is already a threshold state, and as its atomic know-how and highly enriched uranium stockpiles increase, the clear efficacy of bombing Iran subsides.
Mr. Khamenei may not even care that much about reinvigorated U.S. sanctions, since Chinese purchases of Iranian crude oil—almost all of Tehran’s oil exports—haven’t yet been diminished by Mr. Trump. Given the tariff war between Washington and Beijing, the odds that China will effectively resist anti-Iran U.S. sanctions have significantly increased.
The U.S. is where it has always been with the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions: Is America willing to use force to try to stop Iran’s development of an atomic bomb? The Obama-era hope that the clerical regime would somehow change its spots through diplomatic engagement is kaput. For the U.S., diplomacy has become either a diversion, an off-ramp from confrontation, or a prelude to war. Mr. Khamenei appears ready for a fight. Is Mr. Trump?
Mr. Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
