As Thursday’s presidential debate reverberated through American politics, most attention focused on President Biden’s faltering performance. But there is another dimension to the story. The debate moved foreign policy to center stage in the presidential race even as it raised the temperature of world politics and increased the chances of more international crises as the U.S. election approaches.
American presidential debates typically revolve around domestic issues like fiscal policy and culture wars, but last week’s shocker was an exception. Donald Trump has decided that foreign policy is a crucial weakness of the Biden presidency, and he hammered relentlessly at a theme he believes will work for him.
“Throughout the entire world, we’re no longer respected as a country. They don’t respect our leadership. They don’t respect the United States anymore,” Mr. Trump said. He returned to this idea repeatedly during Thursday’s debate. He said Vladimir Putin wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine “if we had a real president . . . a president that was respected by Putin.”
For those who have been paying attention, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Mr. Trump has been emphasizing this idea on the campaign trail. On June 18 he told a rally in Racine, Wis., that “Joe Biden is humiliating our country on the world stage . . . I will prevent a thing called World War III.” The crowd began cheering and continued as he said: “You are closer to it than you have any idea. Biden’s weakness has put us in grave danger.”
Mr. Trump’s rallies have long served as focus groups. The former president throws out ideas and concepts; when his audience responds enthusiastically, he doubles down. The idea that World War III is approaching and only new leadership can prevent it resonates with his supporters. At a June 22 rally in Philadelphia he said that under Mr. Biden, “the world is in flames. Our border is overrun. . . . Europe is in chaos. The Middle East is exploding. Iran is emboldened. China is on the march. And this horrible, horrible president is dragging us toward World War III.”
Mr. Biden’s debate performance also sent shock waves through the international system. Politico quoted a European diplomat’s text: “Internationally this isn’t a great look for America, at the risk of stating the obvious.”
For European leaders, almost all of whom vastly prefer Mr. Biden to his challenger, the president’s halting delivery confirmed existing fears. Based on Mr. Biden’s uneven performance in meetings with European and world leaders, doubts about his ability to win re-election or carry out the duties of office were already widespread. At this point almost the entire Continent is battening down the hatches for what European leaders believe to be a near-inevitable Trump return to the White House.
Mr. Biden’s political and personal vulnerability comes amid a leadership crisis in Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron is licking his wounds after a stinging defeat in the first round of parliamentary elections. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz presides over a weak, divided and unpopular coalition. Viktor Orbán’s Putin-sympathizing Hungary has just assumed a six-month presidency of the European Union. Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives appear on the verge of a landslide defeat in Thursday’s election.
The contrast with a resurgent Russia, where Vladimir Putin seems to have stabilized his domestic political position while strengthening relations with supporters like Iran, China and North Korea, is disquieting.
While the president’s political allies and aides struggled to extinguish the domestic firestorm sparked by the debate, Team Biden’s foreign-policy strategists face an even more complex task. The weak debate showing undermines confidence in both the durability of the Biden administration and the competence of its leadership. Can either Israel or Hamas trust commitments made by this administration when it looks as if Donald Trump will return to power next January? Will China see opportunities as a weakened American administration under an elderly leader fights for its political life?
In a worst-case scenario, the perception of presidential weakness would lead foreign leaders to challenge U.S. power at a time of seeming American vulnerability. Mr. Putin chose to attack Georgia in 2008 while an unpopular George W. Bush administration was dealing with the financial crisis. In 2024, Mr. Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un or Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could choose this moment of American political disarray to make a dramatic move. Two or more of them could coordinate actions, presenting a distracted and weakened Biden administration with the most dangerous and complex international challenge since the 1940s.
As Team Biden works to keep the world calm, it can be sure of one thing. Any foreign-policy failures between now and November will become prominent features of Mr. Trump’s no-holds-barred assault on President Biden’s fitness for office.