China is priming its people and the world for a new pressure campaign on Taiwan

With its so-called pen, China’s state television is preparing the domestic Chinese population for a new phase of pressure against Taiwan.

Its prime-time slot is filled with a new historical drama, “The Silent Honor," which lionizes Communist Party agents operating in Taiwan after the Nationalists fled to the island in 1949 following their loss of the civil war to Mao’s forces. The series frames the agents’ espionage—and eventual execution—as martyrdom for the cause of “unification."

In a parallel move suggesting a top-down mandate to reorient cultural output toward national struggle, state-owned drama troupes are receiving approval only for war-themed plays, said people briefed on the matter, while other genres are being rejected.

This domestic messaging is an intensification of an already amped-up atmosphere of Taiwan reunification rhetoric in China. And it is being matched by the gun.

Chinese leadership is focusing on neutralizing Taiwan’s supporters, notably Tokyo, following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Nov. 7 warning that a Chinese seizure of Taiwan would trigger Japan’s involvement in any conflict.

In a response that shocked the world, China’s Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, posted a threat on X to “cut off" Takaichi’s “dirty neck." The post was later deleted, but people close to Beijing’s decision-making said it was a deliberate, state-sanctioned action designed to test Japan’s resolve.

Simultaneously, China’s military signaled its readiness to escalate last weekend, sending four armed China Coast Guard vessels close to an island chain that both Beijing and Tokyo claim as their own. Japanese fighters rushed to intercept a Chinese military drone hovering near Yonaguni, Japan’s westernmost island and the closest point to Taiwan.

These seemingly distinct events, according to the people close to China’s decision-making, represent a classic example of Beijing’s pen-and-gun strategy: using its iron grip on media and culture to shape domestic opinion while lashing out at Taiwan’s supporters to isolate the island.

There is little indication of an imminent military strike against Taiwan, a self-governing democracy of 24 million people that China claims as its own. But China has been ramping up its military incursions in the Taiwan Strait, intending to keep the squeeze on Taipei, at a time when Beijing sees the Trump administration wavering in its commitment to the island.

“This is the new baseline normal," said Jason Hsu, a former Taiwan lawmaker and now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank. “It prepares domestic audiences, signals resolve externally and shapes the psychological battlespace long before any military move."

China’s strategy, described by those close to Beijing’s decision-making as Plan A, aims to coerce Taiwan into capitulation without firing a shot. The goal is to make the island’s position so economically, diplomatically and psychologically unbearable that negotiation with the Chinese leadership becomes the only viable option.

Looming behind this strategy is Plan B, a military takeover. This distinction is crucial, Hsu and other analysts said. Beijing is systematically fostering an environment where “gray zone" activities such as economic coercion or political interference become the norm, lowering the threshold for direct conflict.

The push comes as Beijing perceives a strategic opening in the relative quiet on Taiwan from the U.S., which China sees as the only country capable of halting its agenda.

President Trump, unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, has avoided explicitly stating whether the U.S. would intervene militarily if China were to invade Taiwan. Trump has said public commitments would weaken his negotiating position with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who he said promised not to invade during his term. Yet recent moves, including the Trump administration’s delay in military aid, have fueled anxiety in Taipei that American support is being sacrificed for an economic deal with China.

Administration officials have characterized the shift as pragmatic deterrence that forces Taipei to fund its own defense capabilities while avoiding symbolic gestures that could grant Beijing a pretext for a Ukraine-style conflict.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth expressed concerns about China’s naval activity around Taiwan in a meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun in late October, indicating the U.S.’s stance on the island hasn’t changed. The U.S. approved a $330 million sale of aircraft parts to Taiwan last week, the first of Trump’s second term.

Beijing is acting now to break a cycle that has hardened over a decade. Since 2016, Taipei’s governing Democratic Progressive Party has cultivated a distinct Taiwanese identity and strengthened ties with global capitals. Beijing has labeled Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te a “dangerous separatist."

Beijing’s calculated moves appear to reflect its fear that the mainland’s “hearts and minds" battle for the island is all but lost.

Decades ago, a significant portion of the Taiwanese population identified as “Chinese" or “both Chinese and Taiwanese." Today, polls consistently show a supermajority, often exceeding 60% to 70%, who identify exclusively as Taiwanese. According to the people close to Chinese decision-making, Beijing sees Taiwan’s national identity solidifying.

This view, these people said, explains why the “pen" is being wielded with such specific historical intent.

The recent broadcast of the spy drama follows a familiar playbook. In 2017, Xi used the airing of “The Qin Empire III," a drama about the events that set the stage for China’s unification under its first emperor, to build public momentum before abolishing presidential term limits.

Since coming to power in late 2012, Xi has made bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control a key tenet of his “China Dream" of national revival. Now, well into an unprecedented third term, he has repeatedly emphasized that “reunification" is inevitable and can’t be stopped by outside forces.

The current focus on the martyrdom of figures like the Chinese agents portrayed in “The Silent Honor" is serving as a similar effort to shape public views, the people close to Beijing’s decision-making said.

Complementing this domestic messaging is a sharpened focus on external targets, specifically Tokyo. In addition to lashing out at Takaichi and sending ships toward disputed islands, authorities in China have urged Chinese tourists to temporarily avoid traveling to Japan, advised Chinese students and applicants to reassess risks associated with studying in the country, and postponed the release of at least two Japanese films. Those actions sent shares of Japanese retail and tourism giants such as Shiseido tumbling.

Analysts describe the Chinese moves as a coordinated effort to align Beijing’s internal and external objectives. By mobilizing the domestic population for a potential struggle while simultaneously seeking to cut off Taiwan’s international support, the strategy aims to create enough pressure to force a political settlement.

For officials in the U.S. and its regional allies, the critical uncertainty is whether this campaign marks the full extent of Beijing’s current plans, or if it signals the beginning of a more aggressive phase.

Write to Lingling Wei at Lingling.Wei@wsj.com