Delimitation Bill: Does NDA have the numbers to amend the Constitution as Monsoon Session begins from 20 July?

All eyes are on Parliament's Monsoon Session, which begins on Monday, July 20. Riding on an improved tally in both Houses, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is looking to push through important legislations, including the proposed Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill linked to the delimitation exercise. The opposition INDIA bloc, meanwhile, will focus on holding its allies together while attempting to prevent further erosion in its ranks.

Although the government is yet to announce the legislative agenda for the session, it is expected to revive the delimitation proposal, which seeks to increase the strength of the Lok Sabha from 543 to around 850 seats. The Bill also lays the groundwork for implementing the 33 per cent reservation for women from the 2029 Lok Sabha election.

The ruling coalition is working to secure the special two-thirds majority required to pass a constitutional amendment and is getting encouragement with news from some quarters.

There has been speculation that MPs from the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) may back the Bill. However, the party's working president Supriya Sule has said no decision has been taken. She added on Wednesday, according to various media reports, that if the proposed delimitation exercise provided for a uniform 50 per cent increase in Lok Sabha seats across all States, "there would be little reason to oppose it".

NDA's improving numbers

The NDA's prospects have improved after 20 Trinamool Congress MPs and six Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) MPs aligned themselves with the BJP-led coalition.

As a result, the NDA's strength in the Lok Sabha has increased from 298 in April to 329, though it still remains short of the two-thirds majority mark of 362 required if the House is at full strength.

According to The Hindu, the BJP has intensified its outreach to regional and independent parties in an effort to secure the numbers needed to pass the constitutional amendment.

The BJP also believes the political landscape has shifted significantly since April. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress lost 20 Lok Sabha MPs who have since aligned with the NDA. In Tamil Nadu, ties between the DMK and the Congress have come under strain after the Congress chose to align with actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). The DMK has since skipped an INDIA bloc meeting while accusing the Congress of betrayel.

The BJP has reportedly assured the DMK that its concerns over delimitation would be addressed in a bid to get the party's support for the Bill. The government is also hopeful that more regional parties may soften their opposition if the legislation guarantees a uniform 50 per cent increase in Lok Sabha seats across all States.

In the Rajya Sabha too, the NDA's numbers are expected to improve after three former Trinamool MPs resigned and joined the BJP. According to The Hindu, the BJP's tally alone could rise to 117 after July 24. With allies, nominated members and independents, the NDA's strength could touch 152, though it would still remain short of the 164 votes required for a constitutional amendment.

What happened in April?

The government first brought the delimitation Bill during the special session in April but failed to secure the required special majority.

Of the 528 MPs who voted: 298 voted in favour while 230 voted against the legislation. The Bill fell 54 votes short of the required 352 vote threshold.

What are the possible scenarios?

Scenario 1: If the 20 Trinamool rebels and six Shiv Sena (UBT) rebels vote with the NDA, the coalition's tally would rise to 318.

Should the 22 DMK MPs also support the Bill, the number would increase to 340. Backing from the eight NCP (SP) MPs would further raise the tally to 348. Even then, the government would remain 12 votes short of the 360 required.

In that case, the BJP would have to seek support from smaller parties such as YSRCP (4), JMM (3), VCK (2), Shiromani Akali Dal (1) and independents.

Scenario 2: Constitutional amendments require the support of two-thirds of members present and voting, meaning abstentions reduce the threshold.

If the 20 Trinamool rebels, 22 DMK MPs, six Shiv Sena (UBT) rebels and eight NCP (SP) MPs abstain, the number of members voting would fall from 540 to 484. The special majority would then reduce to 323. Even in that scenario, the NDA's current strength of 292 would leave it 31 votes short.

Scenario 3: If only the 22 DMK MPs abstain while the 20 Trinamool rebels, six Shiv Sena (UBT) rebels and eight NCP (SP) MPs vote with the government, the number of members present and voting would be 518, reducing the special-majority mark to 346.

The NDA's tally would rise to 326, still leaving it 20 votes short of the required majority.

Rajya Sabha arithmetic

The Rajya Sabha currently has an effective strength of 242, making the special-majority mark 162. The NDA has around 150 MPs.

If the coalition manages to get the support of the DMK's eight MPs and one NCP (SP) MP, its tally would rise to 159, leaving it three votes short. It would then have to rely on parties such as the YSRCP (7), BJD (5), BRS (3) or the BSP (1).

If the nine MPs from the DMK and NCP (SP) abstain instead, the number of members voting would reduce to 233, bringing the two-thirds threshold down to 156. Even then, the NDA would remain six votes short.

Despite these scenarios the NDA remains short of the two-thirds majority in both Houses. While coalition leaders including Maharashtra deputy CM and Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde expressing confidence that the government had the numbers to amend the Constitution it would be a political test for the BJP and NDA to get the two-thirds majority in both house of the Parliament.