Flurry of flutters sparks scandal in British election
Summary
Even in a nation that wagers on everything from royal babies to snail races, the small bets by politicians on the coming vote are perturbing the public.
LONDON—British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stood outside 10 Downing Street on May 22 and called a surprise general election to be held on July 4. Just days earlier, one of his aides, fellow lawmaker Craig Williams, placed a £100 bet that an election would take place in July.
“I should have thought through how it looks," Williams said when the move became public.
He wasn’t the only one. Around 15 Conservative Party officials are also being probed by the gambling regulator for placing a “flutter" on the election date, as a small bet is known in Britain. Sunak’s personal protection officer, assigned by the Metropolitan Police, was arrested and later made bail for allegedly betting on the date. A few days later, the Met said at least seven other police officers were under investigation for the same thing.
In the U.S., gambling on elections is prohibited by many states, including Nevada. But British punters can bet on pretty much whatever they want, as long as someone will take the other side of the bet. Over the years that has included snail racing, the gender of yet to be born royal babies and of course, the weather.
William Kedjanyi, a bookmaker at Star Sports Bookmakers in London, said several clients have been asking: Could he give odds on whether the police would press criminal charges over the political betting scandal?
Professional soccer players in Britain aren’t allowed to bet on soccer. Nor can registered jockeys bet on horses. But politicians can bet on politics, as long as they don’t cheat by using insider information. That’s raising awkward questions about whether it’s really OK for elected officials to try to cash in.
Since the scandal broke in June, barely a day has passed without some politician sheepishly admitting they also made a wager on politics. Scottish Secretary Alister Jack, a cabinet minister, said he placed a £20 bet on the election happening between July and September. But he denied any insider knowledge—noting he’d placed two earlier £5 bets for May and June that didn’t pay out. He has said he isn’t under investigation.
The leader of the U.K.’s Liberal Democrat Party, Ed Davey, said he bet on his party winning a special election in 2022. “But I think lots of people in politics do this," he said.
Conservative candidate Philip Davies took the opposite approach—he placed an £8,000 bet he would lose his district in the coming vote. He told the Sun tabloid he also placed a bet he would lose his district during an election in 2005. Then, he won the election, and lost the bet.
Labour candidate Kevin Craig also bet he would be defeated in his coming election. That caused the Labour Party to suspend him. Craig apologized. “Throughout my life I have enjoyed the odd bet for fun whether on politics or horses," he explained on X.
The U.K. betting market is worth £15 billion a year. Two of the nation’s biggest taxpayers run betting firms. Nearly all main streets in British towns have a betting shop, and betting commercials saturate sports matches. It is a national tradition to place a flutter—the name comes from the bit of excitement you get—on the annual Grand National horse race, or to check the odds on whether it will snow on Christmas Day.
In a quick poll in central London, Tedroy Ricketts, a cleaner, said he likes to bet on the outcome of the coin toss at the start of cricket games in Sri Lanka and India. Another fellow who refused to be named said he’s tracking the betting odds of scientists discovering alien life (surprisingly short odds of 25/1). Someone else said he places bets on the Call of Duty multiplayer computer game.
And unlike in the U.S., the winnings from gambling in Britain are tax-free, whether you’ve won £1 or £1 million.
The practice of betting on politics dates to the 18th century at Oxbridge colleges where members gambled on which lawmakers would get elected or die first, said Anthony Pickles, assistant professor of social anthropology at the University of Birmingham. Nowadays, “it is part of the soup of politics," said Pickles, who added elected officials often like to bet on political outcomes to get a “realistic assessment of the likelihood of a particular event." In other words, odds.
Kedjanyi notes political betting remains niche but popular. While oddsmakers put huge resources into predicting the outcomes of sports games, there is a greater chance of beating the house when betting on politics.
British politics have provided ample betting fodder of late, given the three elections in eight years and a referendum on leaving the European Union. In 2016, when politician Nigel Farage wanted to prove he was serious about winning the Brexit referendum, he placed a £1,000 bet on Brexit winning at 5/2 odds—netting him £2,500.
In 2022, when Liz Truss inaugurated her term as prime minister by launching tax cuts that caused the pound to swoon, a British tabloid put a webcam on a head of lettuce and asked bookies to put odds on which would last longer: that or Truss. The lettuce won.
Kedjanyi has offered odds on whether lawmakers get booted from the parliamentary chamber during the weekly prime minister’s question time, which sometimes happens if they are too rowdy. A client recently inquired about the odds of the current defense secretary going to work at TikTok if he loses his job after the July 4 vote.
The ruling Conservative Party’s chances of winning re-election don’t look good. They work out to just 0.7%. Not good news for Kevin Hollinrake, the Conservatives’ small business minister, who said he bet on the Tories winning. “I got good odds, I got good odds," he said on LBC radio, explaining he made the wager a few months ago. After a beat, he added: “I would probably get better odds today."
Enes Morina contributed to this article.
Write to Max Colchester at Max.Colchester@wsj.com
