How Nitish Kumar’s return will boost NDA’s prospects in Lok Sabha elections 2024

Bihar Chief Minister retained his post as the governmental head in the state, while breaking off from the Mahagathbandhan with Congress, and Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD). Bihar CM and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar flip-flopped his way back to the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)- led national Democratic Alliance (NDA) only a year and half after he had quit and vowed never to look back on the NDA. 

Bihar CM Nitish Kumar returned to the NDA, only days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government awarded the Bharat Ratna, the highest civilian award in India, to Nitish Kumar's mentor and former Dalit CM of Bihar- Karpoori Thakur--posthumously. 

With Nitish Kumar and his JD(U) back in the NDA fold, here's how it looks number-wise ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls.

Lok Sabha

For 2024, the BJP sees better vote conversion with the JD(U) in its NDA, and its winnability increases with Nitish Kumar joining hands. Bihar sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha. The Lok Sabha has 543 seats of which 339 belong to the NDA. 

Within the 339 seats of NDA, the BJP has the highest share of 290 seats, followed by JD(U)'s 16 seats. 

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Bihar, the BJP won 17 seats, the JD(U) won 16, and the RJD won none (despite a sizeable vote share of over 15%).

In 2022, after the alliance between the BJP and JD(U) had ended in that particular iteration, the BJP’s list of 144 vulnerable Lok Sabha seats saw Bihar’s share go up from four to 10. Seats like Nawada, Vaishali, Valmiki Nagar, Kishanganj, Katihar, Supaul, Munger, Jhanjharpur, Gaya, and Purnea are in the BJP’s list of vulnerable seats in Bihar.

Bihar Legislative Assembly

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is unique because he has 43 MLAs in a 243-member House and still is the chief minister. The JD(U) is the third-largest party in Bihar with 43 MLAs after the RJD, which has 79 MLAs, and the BJP, which has 78 MLAs.

Earlier after the Legislative Assembly Polls, Nitish Kumar had joined hands with Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which won 75 seats in Bihar Legislative Assembly, compared to Nitish Kumar-led JD(U)'s 43 seats. 

Nitish Kumar joined hands with the state's opposition bloc in 2022 after fighting the 2020 assembly election in alliance with the BJP. The RJD remains the single-largest party in the Bihar assembly.

According to a Hindu report quoting a BJP official, “The Mahagathbandhan vote bank based on the 2020 Assembly polls, that is, RJD, Congress, JD(U), and the CPI(ML) totals up to 52.6%.”

“And even Nitish Kumar alone, in a Lok Sabha poll with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the face (of the opposing BJP) is still good for at least 15% of the vote,” said a senior BJP leader involved in the affairs of the State.

The 52% figure is almost double that of the BJP and its other allies such as the Lok Janshakti Party and Hindustan Awaam Morcha.