In a Chaotic House, the Next Speaker Must Unite These Three Factions

Speaker candidates Reps. Steve Scalise (La.) and Jim Jordan (Ohio), must unite an unruly group of Republicans with diverse political needs and interests. On the political right, about 40 members belong to the Freedom Caucus,  who are among the most fiscally conservative and often refuse to compromise on their views. By contrast, 18 House Republicans represent districts that President Biden won in 2020, and all but one lean toward the political center.

With the House split 222-212, each candidate can lose no more than four votes, assuming all Democrats oppose the speaker nominee.

It took just eight Republicans, most of them ardent conservatives, to strip the speaker’s gavel from Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.). The next speaker will have to find a way to bring most of those members on board without losing support from less-conservative Republicans. On Wednesday, members will attend a GOP conference vote to pick their nominee. A vote of the whole House would then follow, requiring a majority of the chamber to back the new pick.

It took just eight Republicans, most of them ardent conservatives, to strip the speaker’s gavel from Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.). The next speaker will have to find a way to bring most of those members on board without losing support from less-conservative Republicans.

Here are some of the factions that divide the 221 House Republicans—along with how Jordan and Scalise, as well as the eight members who voted to oust McCarthy, compare with their colleagues on important votes.

Scalise and Jordan have adopted different policy profiles. Scalise has been in the House leadership since 2014 and mostly voted alongside McCarthy, while Jordan was a founder of the Freedom Caucus and supported conservative hard-line measures.

Those differences appeared late last month on McCarthy’s effort to extend government funding and avoid a shutdown. Scalise joined with McCarthy and 124 other Republicans, as well as almost every Democrat, to pass the deal. Jordan joined 89 House Republicans in voting against it.

That wasn’t the first bipartisan fiscal deal opposed by the eight dissenters. All eight voted against the deal McCarthy negotiated with Biden to raise the nation’s borrowing limit and avert a possible government default, saying the package didn’t include sufficient spending cuts. Some signaled they may seek to oust McCarthy over the concessions he made.

Both speaker candidates, Jordan and Scalise, backed the bipartisan deal. It passed with more Democratic than Republican votes, though a majority of House Republicans supported it.

The question of additional aid to Ukraine has divided Republicans, and it is another issue on which Jordan and Scalise differ.

In late September, the House approved a measure giving $300 million more in security assistance to Ukraine—a small fraction of $24 billion that Biden has requested. More Republicans voted against the bill than for it. Jordan and seven of the eight McCarthy defectors were among the “no’’ votes. Scalise joined with a minority of his party and every Democrat who cast a vote in supporting the additional aid.

Note: There were instances of Republicans not voting on measures

Sources: Pew Research Center and staff reports (Freedom Caucus members and allies); UVA Center for Politics (Republicans in Biden districts); the caucuses (Main Street Caucus members, Problem Solvers members); U.S. House of Representatives (votes)

Photo sources: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images (Biggs); Annabelle Gordon/CNP/Zuma Press (Buck); Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call/Zuma Press (Crane); Jacquelyn Martin/Associated Press (Gaetz); Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images (Good, Scalise); Rod Lamkey/CNP/Zuma Press (Rosendale); Win McNamee/Getty Images (Burchett); Tom Williams/Zuma Press (Mace); Saul Loeb/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images (Jordan, McCarthy)

Write to Kara Dapena at kara.dapena@wsj.com and Aaron Zitner at aaron.zitner@wsj.com