Iraq’s leader seeks an improbable prize: Independence from the US and Iran

He was 10 years old when his father was executed by Saddam Hussein’s regime for membership in an Iran-aligned political party. He still praises the U.S. intervention that toppled Hussein, even as he owes his premiership to the Iran-aligned Shia Muslim political parties that rule Iraq’s democracy.

Today, Sudani, 55, is running for a second term as prime minister in national elections Tuesday, touting his efforts to regain a degree of independence from both Washington and Tehran without sacrificing Baghdad’s ties to either of its powerful patrons. Many see it as an impossible goal, and in a bitterly divided Iraq, it might not be a winning platform.

In his three years in office, Sudani has overseen three major political accomplishments. He negotiated the final withdrawal of U.S. combat troops last year; he kept Iraq out of the Israel-Iran war; and he used high oil prices from early in his term to fund a construction boom that has boosted employment and put a check on the country’s cycle of civil unrest.

“There is now security, stability and societal harmony," Sudani said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, a stark change for a country that for two decades has been an arena of conflict with outside powers and conflicting internal forces.

The questions now are whether Iran—bloodied and weakened from its war with Israel—is losing its grip on Iraq, its last major ally in the region, and whether the Trump administration is too distracted by conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Venezuela to exert its long-held influence over Iraq.

Iran, Sudani said, is “a neighboring country with which we have friendly ties. But certainly, this friendship will not be at the expense of our national decisions and the interests of Iraq and Iraqis."

With the U.S., Sudani said, he wants “the nature of the relationship not to be a security one, but rather an economic and commercial one that benefits both countries."

“We are keen on a relationship based on mutual respect, respect for Iraqi sovereignty and shared interests," he said.

Political analysts say Sudani has an uphill battle.

Washington remains Baghdad’s closest security partner and top weapons supplier. The Trump administration has significant leverage over Iraq with potential financial sanctions in connection with armed militia groups aligned with Iran. The U.S. has already designated several of the groups as terrorist organizations.

Iran remains a powerful force in Iraq. Tehran-backed militias are the backbone of Iran’s presence there, and the dominant political force is Nouri al-Maliki, an Iran-aligned politician who was Iraq’s first elected prime minister in 2006.

“As long as Iran-backed armed groups retain their operational autonomy, no government can genuinely break away from Iran’s influence," said Tamer Badawi, an associate fellow with RUSI, a U.K. defense think tank.

U.S. officials were modestly optimistic when Sudani emerged from obscurity to be prime minister in October 2022. He made waves in a January 2023 interview with the Journal, when he said he believed U.S. troops were needed in the country to defeat Islamic State—a position that contradicted the Iran-aligned political allies who installed him in power.

Last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a call with Sudani and reiterated the demand that Iraq’s militias disarm. In the interview, Sudani said the militias are now “an official security institution" subject to orders from the government.

“It is a security apparatus that executes orders," Sudani said. “It has no involvement in any political stance."

The militias mostly stayed on the sidelines during Iran’s 12-day war with Israel.

“We protected our country from being dragged into this war," Sudani said. “Today, Iraq is not an arena for conflict, but rather a hub for dialogue."

But Iraqi analysts said Sudani has largely failed to rein in the militias. “Those armed groups retain political and economic influence, and the state has yet to demonstrate full capacity or will to enforce broad disarmament," said Hayder Al-Shakeri, a research fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London think tank.

Badawi, the RUSI analyst, said Sudani, with Iran’s backing, persuaded the militias to stop attacking U.S. and other Western forces by cutting them into government contracts. “Sudani made short-term gains but allowed the groups to become more entrenched in the economy," Badawi said.

An aide to Sudani said there is no evidence of such arrangements with the militias.

A clear break from Iran came when Sudani flew to the Egyptian resort of Sharm El Sheikh to attend President Trump’s signing ceremony for the recent cease-fire and hostage deal in Gaza. The trip drew criticism from the powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a nationalist who accused Sudani of legitimizing Israel.

Tuesday’s election won’t settle the matter of Iraq’s next leader. Elections, which involve dozens of political parties, kick off intense backroom negotiations over who will get the premiership, which always goes to a member of a Shia political party in Iraq’s power-sharing system. Washington and Iran are always part of the conversation.

“Iran will never let a powerful leader rise in Iraq," said Lawk Ghafuri, an Iraqi political analyst. “Changing the PM every four years is a must for Tehran to make sure no individual will have a fan base or become popular."

Sudani has launched his own political party but faces an unusual situation in that his party is still part of Maliki’s larger umbrella political group. Maliki is working to undermine him, political analysts said.

Sudani needs to win enough seats in Parliament to show that he can’t be shunted aside, analysts said, a tall order.

“It is a large national alliance," Sudani said. “We have a great opportunity by virtue of what we have achieved."

Write to Michael Amon at michael.amon@wsj.com