Israel’s Netanyahu confronts altered political landscape in US

In the days leading up to his visit, it appeared U.S. party politics had moved in Israel’s favor. The national discussion over Israel’s conduct in Gaza seemed to have fallen into the background, as the focus moved to President Biden’s fitness and former President Donald Trump’s invigorated campaign after a failed assassination attempt. Campus protests had died down with the summer break, and some delayed arms shipments had begun to flow.

Then the ground shifted. Just hours before Netanyahu boarded his plane for the long flight, Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race. The prime minister was airborne while Vice President Kamala Harris was solidifying her position as the Democrats’ presumptive nominee.

He landed confronted with a new balancing act—appealing to the new, potentially more progressive face of the Democratic Party while not antagonizing Trump.

There is tension between Netanyahu and both sides of the U.S. political aisle. Some Democrats continue to chafe over his 2015 speech before Congress in which he attacked President Barack Obama’s Iran policy. Meanwhile, Trump was put off by Netanyahu’s embrace of Biden after the 2020 election.

Harris has been tougher in her criticism of Israel than Biden, hewing closer to the progressive flank of her party. Netanyahu will need to be wary of reigniting controversy over Israel just as she is formulating her own public approach to what has become a wedge issue in the election.

If Netanyahu comes off as too chummy with the Democrats, he risks raising the ire of Trump, who has already lambasted him as someone ungrateful for their prior cooperation.

Many back in Israel are bracing themselves for a speech that they fear could draw the wrong sort of attention.

“Anyone who understands the bilateral relationship has got to be very concerned about Israel becoming a partisan issue," said Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel. “He is going to have to be very, very careful if he doesn’t want in the end to alienate both sides."

Speaking Monday morning from the tarmac in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu sought to allay fears that his rhetoric would alienate either side of the U.S. political divide.

“I will seek to anchor the bipartisan support that is so important for Israel," Netanyahu said. “And I will tell my friends on both sides of the aisle that regardless who the American people choose as their next president, Israel remains America’s indispensable and strong ally in the Middle East."

Netanyahu is traveling to the U.S. for the speech at the invitation of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.). He is scheduled to meet Biden on Thursday at the White House and Trump on Friday at the former president’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla. He is set to meet Harris as well.

Boaz Bismuth, a lawmaker from Netanyahu’s Likud party, said the prime minister couldn’t say no to an invitation from Congress, especially not when Israel is facing historic challenges.

Few countries have more at stake in this U.S. presidential election. Israel needs a steady supply of arms, intelligence, diplomatic support in international forums and potentially outright military support as it hopes to defeat or deter its adversaries. It is contending with a war in Gaza, another looming on the border with Lebanon and an increase in clashes with Iran-backed militias in places as distant as Yemen.

U.S. support looked less certain in the spring, with college campuses roiled by pro-Palestinian protests, the Biden administration pausing some weapons deliveries because of concerns about civilian casualties and Schumer calling for Netanyahu to step down. Concerns grew in Israel that U.S. support would fall victim to partisan politics.

Such concerns have eased, but Netanyahu risks reigniting debates over U.S. support for Israel. Progressive Democrats already have Netanyahu and Israel in their sights thanks to the visit.

“Netanyahu should not be welcomed into the United States Congress," said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vermont), a critic of the Israeli government who won’t attend the speech. “On the contrary, his policies in Gaza and the West Bank and his refusal to support a two-state solution should be roundly condemned."

Harris also won’t be attending the speech because of what aides said was a previously scheduled event Wednesday in Indianapolis.

A letter signed by 230 anonymous House and Senate staffers last week called on members to protest or boycott the event.

“This is not an issue of politics, but an issue of morality," the letter says. “Citizens, students, and lawmakers across the country and the world have spoken out against the actions of Mr. Netanyahu in his War on Gaza."

In 2015, nearly 60 Democrats boycotted Netanyahu’s speech to Congress. While the exact number of Democrats who plan to skip this week’s address isn’t known, some congressional aides have privately suggested it could be between 50 and 100.

Netanyahu is deeply unpopular at home among many voters and his own security establishment. Both blame him for failing to cut a cease-fire deal with Hamas that could free some of the 116 hostages still being held in Gaza, many of them already likely dead, and for subjecting the country to the prospect of an endless war.

Critics also fault him for fighting publicly with the Biden administration about the war in Gaza, including a recent dispute over arms deliveries, in what they see as posturing to improve his standing at home.

The prime minister has said that he is standing up for Israel and that the military pressure is improving the prospects for a deal. Many in Israel see his visit as an attempt to burnish his image and appear as a statesman to his supporters.

Netanyahu’s speech at the Capitol will be his fourth. He is making the address on his first trip abroad since the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7 killed 1,200, took around 250 hostages and set off Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip. More than 39,000 people have been killed in the fighting, according to Gaza health authorities, who don’t say how many were combatants.

The feeling in Israel now is that the tension with the U.S. has abated, Hamas has been severely weakened and that Israel is no longer facing an emergency situation, said Amit Segal, a leading conservative Israeli commentator.

The backdrop gives Netanyahu the room to take a less combative approach with the Biden administration while seeking to frame the conflict in Gaza as an international war with international consequences, he said.

Bismuth, the Likud lawmaker, said that while the prime minister’s 2015 speech was meant to warn the West about the threat from Iran, this week’s speech is about what to do now that the threat has been unleashed.

“In 2015 it was theoretical," Bismuth said. “Now everything is all too real."

Israel’s security establishment fears that long-term bipartisan support in Washington, a pillar of national security, is in danger.

“The fact that he’s landing in the biggest political storm now shows he doesn’t understand the political situation," said Mitchell Barak, a former adviser to Netanyahu and now a political analyst and director at Jerusalem-based Keevoon Global Research. “He’s only going to create divisions and do more damage than good by doing this trip."

Write to Dov Lieber at dov.lieber@wsj.com, Sabrina Siddiqui at sabrina.siddiqui@wsj.com and Lara Seligman at lara.seligman@wsj.com