Israel’s next move after Iran attack involves complex calculations

Israel’s war cabinet was meeting Monday to discuss how and when to respond to Iran’s attack, which Tehran said was in response to the killing by Israel of a senior Iranian general at an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus, Syria. Israel hasn’t confirmed or denied involvement.

“The point is to respond smartly, in a way that won’t undermine the opportunity for regional and international cooperation that we created," said Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S.

Israel faces an increasingly delicate set of political calculations. It is already fighting on three fronts: in Gaza against Hamas, on its northern border with Hezbollah, as well as trying to quell unrest in the West Bank. Now, it is under pressure to restore deterrence with Iran. Decision makers must balance the need to project strength with their desire to hold together a tenuous strategic partnership against Iran that helped it block the attack in the first place.

President Biden has urged Israel to use caution in any response to Iran’s unprecedented attack and pressed allies Sunday for a united diplomatic front in a bid to stop the hostilities from spiraling into open warfare that could engulf the Middle East and entangle the U.S.

Operations in Gaza are also part of the Israeli calculus, including a planned offensive in the crowded southern city of Rafah, which Israel sees as crucial to eliminating Hamas but that is opposed by Israel’s close allies and Arab neighbors who came to its defense on Saturday. The issue of a ground operation in Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians are sheltering, has been a key source of tension between Israel and the U.S. Israeli strikes on Rafah continued in recent days despite Saturday’s attack, people living in the city said.

Militarily, analysts said, Israel’s decisions regarding Iran and Gaza may not be linked, but they are connected politically.

Netanyahu’s right-wing base is already disgruntled that the ground operation in Rafah hasn’t taken place and doesn’t seem imminent, since Israel has pulled most soldiers out of Gaza. Israel is calling up two reserve brigades in the coming days for reinforcement in Gaza but will need more forces for any major operation. Now, Netanyahu’s supporters want a strong retaliation against Iran as well.

“To create deterrence in the Middle East," Israel “has to go crazy," Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s national security minister and a voice of Israel’s hard right said on Sunday.

Failure to act against Iran or in Rafah could further harm Netanyahu’s already diminished political support, said Chuck Freilich, a former Israeli deputy national security adviser.

“Even if he wants to show restraint on both fronts, he has to balance that," said Freilich.

Israeli security analysts said Israel had a range of options that it would consider as retaliation rather than major escalation, without overstretching its forces that are deployed in Gaza, on its northern border and in the West Bank.

Options include cyberattacks and targeted attacks on key state-owned sites such as Iranian oil infrastructure. Israel has in the past targeted Iranian personnel and infrastructure related to Iran’s nuclear program without taking responsibility, and could do so again but more overtly, analysts said. In addition to direct strikes on Iran, analysts said Israel could respond indirectly by hitting one of Iran’s proxies in the region.

Analysts said any Israeli strike on major Iranian nuclear sites would be unlikely, since they are deep underground and doing so would require the backing and aid of Washington. The U.S. has never greenlighted an Israeli counterattack, said Oren, the former Israeli ambassador, who is also a historian. “It’s when we move from defense to counter-offense, we hemorrhage American support," he added.

Strikes on preselected military targets inside Iran, based on extensive Israeli intelligence, are more likely, said Sima Shine, head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies. But she was skeptical that such retaliation would take place in the near term, since it would require support from Washington. If Israel retaliates, it would likely avoid Iranian civilian and economic sites, Shine said.

U.S. and Western officials anticipate that Israel will quickly respond to Iran’s attacks, as soon as Monday, officials said. But the officials said they hoped both countries could come away with a sense of victory, giving them an off ramp that would limit escalatory moves.

Israel might also choose to defer action until a later point. One option is “‘we will respond, but not immediately.’ Iran will give Israel reason to respond and retaliate in future," said Ehud Yaari, a fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “I think it’s very clear at this point that Israel would have to do something about Iran at some point, but not now," he added.

The U.S., U.K. and France sought to dial down tensions after participating in Saturday’s formidable display of collective defense, urging Israel to demonstrate restraint to prevent escalation in the wider Middle East region.

“We must both be alongside Israel to ensure its security as much as possible, but call for a limit to avoid escalation," French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday.

In a call Saturday evening with Netanyahu, Biden said the Israelis should proceed with caution after the successful joint operation to thwart Iran’s attack.

The U.S., France and the U.K. intercepted drones headed for Israel on Saturday night, while the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which doesn’t officially recognize Israel, agreed privately to share intelligence. Jordan, which has repeatedly called on Israel for a cease-fire in Gaza, said it would allow the use of its airspace by U.S. and other countries’ warplanes and use its own aircraft to assist in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones, Saudi and Egyptian officials said.

Fatima AbdulKarim contributed to this article.

Write to Dov Lieber at dov.lieber@wsj.com