Justin Trudeau has a big political problem: Justin Trudeau

Almost a decade later, Trudeau is fighting for political survival. About two-thirds of the public disapproves of his performance. His Liberal Party is losing once-safe seats, and some members of his caucus say Trudeau needs to go. And the Trudeau brand is now stubbornly unpopular as Canadians say they are simply tired of him.

“He was youthful, sexy, and you know, Mr. Selfie," said Andrew Perez, a strategic-communications adviser and Liberal Party supporter. “Now there’s a disdain for Trudeau, even among very progressive people."

After nine years in the political wilderness, Canada’s opposition parties see a unique opportunity to deal Trudeau a resounding defeat, much like what Britain’s Conservatives sustained earlier this year. An election must be held by October next year but could be called sooner if Trudeau’s government loses a no-confidence vote.

“The biggest issue is voter fatigue," said Lori Turnbull, a politics professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia. “It’s kind of the benefit cost of investing the whole brand of the Liberal Party in Trudeau. Because when the person becomes unlikable, that’s it. It’s very hard to pivot."

Trudeau’s drop in popularity was years in the making, political analysts and pollsters say, due in part to an accumulation of scandals and a failure to connect with voters on so-called kitchen table issues.

The country’s ethics watchdog ruled in 2019 that Trudeau broke conflict-of-interest laws by trying to steer the attorney general away from criminally prosecuting a Montreal company. During an election later that year, images emerged of him wearing blackface and brownface, damaging his reputation as a progressive champion of diversity. Trudeau apologized. His Liberals won re-election in 2019 and again in 2021, but each time returning with minority governments and a smaller share of the popular vote.

Trudeau’s big bet on immigration to spur economic growth has backfired, policy analysts and economists say, as it led to higher housing costs and imposed a strain on social services and infrastructure. Environics Institute, which has polled Canadians about immigration since 1977, said Thursday that nearly 60% believe the country accepts too many immigrants, or the highest share in a quarter-century. Public opinion on immigration “has effectively flipped from being acceptable, if not valuable, to problematic," Environics said.

There were also larger forces at play. Trudeau is among the incumbents across the Western world who face angry electorates in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and its accompanying social restrictions. The rise in inflation to historic highs has also been a factor. Trudeau’s former finance minister, Bill Morneau, attributed higher prices in part to Ottawa keeping emergency fiscal measures in place for too long.

Sean Casey is one of two Liberal Party lawmakers who have publicly called on Trudeau to step down. Casey, who represents a district on Prince Edward Island, said an increasing share of voters he speaks to dislike the prime minister. “This isn’t about policy," he said, adding voters’ opposition to Trudeau “is more emotional than it is rational and logical."

He said at least 20 of his colleagues are planning to confront Trudeau at next Wednesday’s Liberal Party caucus meeting about the need to quit and give Liberals a fighting chance in the next election. “I’m frankly pessimistic that this will make a difference, because he has been absolutely steadfast in basically rebuffing all approaches," Casey said.

A spokeswoman for Trudeau referred to the prime minister’s comments this past week, in which he said “there will be other days to talk about internal party processes" when asked about caucus discontent.

Like him or not, Trudeau has said he isn’t going away, at least not quietly. The longest-serving leader of a Group of Seven country, Trudeau is trying to hang on until October 2025, when elections must be held. That will buy him time to pass new measures to address rising housing prices and the cost of living, while also casting doubt among Canadians about the Conservatives, whose leader, Pierre Poilievre, has vowed to roll back large chunks of the Liberal government’s progressive policy agenda.

Recognizing the hurdles, Trudeau recently went on the “Late Show with Stephen Colbert," where he said: “People are taking a lot out on me for understandable reasons."

“I’ve been steering us through all these things, and people are sometimes looking at change," he said.

In recent appearances, Trudeau said the Liberals need to be brash in defending their record and targeting the Conservatives. He has accused Poilievre, the Tory leader, of being “a liar" and “gaslighting" Canadians, when discussing the government’s policies on carbon taxes and dental benefits. “I’ve got to fight to lead against people who want to hurt this country," Trudeau said, about why he intends to stay on.

Poilievre, 45 years old, has proved to be a combative figure and effective communicator, political watchers say. His main mantra is that “Canada is broken" under Trudeau’s watch, focusing on the impact households face from inflation, a carbon tax and higher interest rates. “Taxes are up, costs are up, crime is up and now time is up," Poilievre has said of life under Trudeau.

Trudeau said recently that Poilievre and the Conservatives offer nothing more than slogans and personal attacks. He has argued the Tory leader is too chummy with conspiracy theorists and is a “campus Conservative turned career politician." Poilievre has served in the legislature for two decades.

The Conservative Party, which has held a wide lead of up to 20 percentage points over the Liberals for more than a year, has tried twice this fall to engineer the minority government’s defeat in the legislature, via a no-confidence motion, and trigger a snap election. Those attempts failed, with the two other opposition parties refusing to rally behind the Tories’ gambit.

The likelihood of an early national vote before October 2025 ramped up last month after the left-wing New Democratic Party pulled its support for the minority Liberal government—in place since early 2022 through a coalition pact—arguing Canadians were losing hope under the prime minister’s rule. The Bloc Quebecois, which holds the third-most seats in the legislature, said Trudeau has until Oct. 29 to improve seniors’ pensions and offer additional protection to farmers from foreign competition in exchange for the party’s support in parliament.

All three Canadian opposition parties would have to vote in concert to defeat the Trudeau government on a confidence vote, based on the legislature’s configuration.

After becoming prime minister in November 2015, Trudeau enjoyed an extended honeymoon with Canadian voters on a promise to lift the fortunes of the middle class, and he emerged as a political rock star among global progressives. He earned kudos for how he handled Donald Trump’s administration during the renegotiation of a North American trade treaty, and for aggressively deploying fiscal policy to fuel a quick recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

That Trudeau’s political magic is fading was hammered home over the summer by stunning losses in special elections to fill vacancies in Toronto and Montreal—once considered bedrocks of Liberal Party support—after Trudeau-appointed cabinet ministers left the legislature.

“There is no geographic area or voter base that offers a promising starting point for a Liberal resurgence. Safe Liberal seats are now few and far between," said Darrell Bricker, head of the polling firm Ipsos Public Affairs.

Former officials and analysts say the Trudeau administration has the look of a spent force, burned out after frantic years trying to preserve unfettered trade access to the U.S. during the Trump White House and dealing with the pandemic.

There was “an inability to feel resonant, and just being really slow off the mark to be able to adapt and react to the postpandemic reality," Marci Surkes, a strategic adviser at Ottawa public-affairs firm Compass Rose and a former Trudeau adviser, said of the Liberal government’s struggles. Trudeau and officials are now playing catch-up in addressing voter concerns over inflation, housing shortages and affordability, and slowing the pace of immigration intake.

The failure so far to reverse declining polling numbers is “slowly but steadily eating away at the mood and morale of the team," Surkes said, “with one exception—the prime minister."

Write to Paul Vieira at paul.vieira@wsj.com