Mint Explainer: Likely fallout of an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza
Summary
- Regional implications are vast, especially if countries like Iran intervene.
After an air campaign resulting in hundreds of casualties, experts believe an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza is imminent, in response to Hamas' attacks that took approximately 1,300 lives in Israel. This potential ground offensive poses a risk of a broader regional conflict. Mint takes a closer look:
What is the current state of the conflict?
Tensions flared on 7 October when Hamas targeted Israel in a coordinated assault. Since then, Israel has intensified its airstrikes on Hamas-controlled Gaza. Palestinian health officials have reported over 2,300 deaths and many injured. Amid this, Israel also declared a "siege" of Gaza, restricting access to essentials. UN Chief Antonio Guterres urged Israel to permit humanitarian aid, citing looming humanitarian disaster.
Ground offensive on the horizon?
Israeli forces are seemingly gearing up for a ground assault, having mobilized significant reserves. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted at transitioning the conflict to its "next phase". Indications from the Israeli Defence Forces suggest preparations for comprehensive ground, sea, and air offensives. Gaza residents received a 24-hour evacuation notice on Thursday, with more than 1 million Palestinians already displaced over the last week, according to a spokesperson for the UN relief agency in Palestine.
What will be the consequences?
Experts forecast severe casualties on both sides should Israel proceed with a ground invasion. There's concern that Israel might be dragged into a prolonged occupation, countering its objective of neutralizing factions like Hamas. Regional implications are vast, especially if countries like Iran intervene. Tehran's media outlets have hinted at escalation if Israel goes ahead with its ground offensive.
Global reactions
US President Joe Biden has supported Israel’s resolve to wipe out Hamas but has counselled against Gaza's occupation. Meanwhile, a second American carrier strike group has been ordered into the region. India has opted for a balanced position, advocating a two-state solution, emphasizing the significance of abiding by international law while denouncing terrorism.