Politics
Mint Explainer: Maldives elections and India's strategic interests
Summary
- Maldives President Ibu Solih, a steadfast supporter of the India-Maldives partnership, trailed behind Mohamed Muizzu
New Delhi: The Maldives, a crucial ally for India in the Indian Ocean, completed its first round of pivotal presidential elections on Saturday. The results could mean a potential strategic shift for India. President Ibu Solih, a steadfast supporter of the India-Maldives partnership, trailed behind Mohamed Muizzu. Given Muizzu's clear reservations about India, this election could reshape the dynamics of the region. Here's a deep dive into the evolving situation.
What is the background?
An island nation located around 2,000 km from India, the Maldives is among India’s most important partners in the Indian Ocean. India's regional dominance is significantly bolstered by a robust bond with a geographically strategic partner like the Maldives. New Delhi has also been a significant provider of development aid to the country. Numerous Maldivian presidents have traditionally followed an “India First" strategy, prioritizing strategic ties with India. This includes the incumbent President Ibu Solih. However, a section of Maldivian politicians, particularly the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) has apprehensions about India's prominent role.
What are the roots of such concerns?
Abdulla Yameen, who led the PPM and served as President between 2013 and 2018, began a policy of cultivating partners other than India, especially China. Experts believe President Yameen saw India as a backer of the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP), his political rivals. Yameen accused Indian defence personnel present in the Maldives in support roles of indulging in “espionage". He also signed a free trade agreement with China even as debt to Beijing spiralled during his tenure. The PPM also led the ‘India Out" campaign which attempted to cast suspicion on Indian investments and activities in the country.
Why does this election matter?
Incumbent President Ibu Solih, who took office in 2018, returned the country’s foreign policy to its “India First" orientation. However, he faces a tough challenge from Mohamed Muizzu, the current mayor of Male, the country’s capital, and a candidate for the Progressive Alliance. The alliance includes the PPM and Muizzu is considered a close associate of former president Yameen, who has been disqualified from running for re-election. No president in Maldives has won a second term since the country's transition to democracy. Additionally, Solih's party has seen internal division as former president Mohammed Nasheed, who led the country between 2008 and 2012, left the party to form a new one.
What has happened so far?
In the first round of the presidential election, Muizzu got 46.06% of the votes with President Solih trailing with 39.05%. A candidate backed by Nasheed polled bagged 7%. The second round is expected to take place soon and will pit Solih against Muizzu. For Solih to bridge the gap, he will need significant support. At this time, he seems unlikely to receive it from Nasheed. This does not bode well for his re-election bid.
Will a Muizzu victory spell trouble for India?
Muizzu has previously questioned projects and contracts awarded to Indian companies. He also committed to a policy that would require foreign military personnel to leave the country, which would impact India’s presence there. Therefore, his victory in the second round could be a blow to India. However, Muizzu may require the support of former president Mohammed Nasheed to win office. The latter has been a strong advocate of closer ties with India and may be able to moderate Muizzu’s positions on relations with India.
