Politics
Mint Explainer: Myanmar civil war spurs 5K refugees into India. What's at stake?
Summary
- India has advocated for the cessation of hostilities and dialogue in Myanmar while continuing its security cooperation with the junta to address insurgencies
As Myanmar's civil war intensifies, with the military junta clashing fiercely against rebel militias, India has witnessed a surge of refugees crossing into its borders. This heightened conflict comes over two years following the military's ousting of Myanmar's elected government. Rebel groups, striving to reclaim territories, have succeeded in capturing critical military bases and towns. The escalation has resulted in a significant civilian exodus, with many seeking safety in India. Mint delves into the unfolding events.
The background
The military coup of February 2021 marked the resurgence of a longstanding civil war in Myanmar, with ethnic militias, notably the Three Brotherhood Alliance, engaging in armed resistance against the ruling junta. The conflict has led to a substantial death toll and a refugee crisis.. According to data from the UNHCR, India is home to almost 80,000 refugees from Myanmar. Over 50,000 have to come to the country after the coup in February 2021.
What is behind the new influx in refugees?
A renewed offensive by the Three Brotherhood Alliance in late October, particularly in the China-bordering Shan state, has significantly undermined the junta's hold over military posts, spurring a new wave of refugees. Concurrent assaults by other militias in the Chin and Sagaing regions, adjoining India, have precipitated the flight of around 5,000 people, including some military personnel, into India's Mizoram.
Implications for India's security
India faces potential ethnic strife, given the cultural and ethnic affiliations between the Chin community in Myanmar and groups such as the Kukis and Mizos in India. Meanwhile, the presence of Meitei militias in Myanmar, reportedly backed by the junta, further complicates the situation. There is growing concern that Myanmar's internal conflicts might spill over into Indian territories, historically marred by Kuki-Meitei tensions. Additionally, the Myanmar military's territorial losses pose questions about its governance capabilities, with regional instability being a significant concern for India.
What has India's policy been?
India has advocated for the cessation of hostilities and dialogue in Myanmar while continuing its security cooperation with the junta to address insurgencies. This balancing act has attracted scrutiny, with criticisms emerging from Myanmarese civil society factions. Some analysts have also suggested that the country’s military is patronising insurgent groups, which undercuts India’s efforts.
