Mint Explainer: Why’s the Maldives cold shouldering India?

The two countries have mostly had cordial relations, with India providing administrative and infrastructure support. But a section of Maldivian politicians haven’t been comfortable with India’s presence in the archipelago. The Maldives does have a history of flip-flopping between India and China. What’s happening now under the new government at Male? Mint takes a look at the state of India-Maldives relations.

What exactly happened?

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2019 visit to the Maldives, the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding on hydrography cooperation. This paved the way for both sides to carry out maritime surveys and chart Maldivian territorial waters. For example, in 2022, the Indian Navy’s INS Sutlej carried out a joint hydrographic survey with its Maldivian counterparts. On Thursday, Mohamed Firuzul Abdul Khaleel, undersecretary for public policy at the Maldives President’s Office, stated at a press conference that the Maldives will not renew the agreement with India. 

What was their reasoning?

Firuzul stated the decision stemmed from national security concerns. Future hydrographic surveys will be carried out by the Maldives alone, he said, given the nature of the “sensitive" information involved. “According to the terms of this agreement, if one party wishes to drop the agreement, the other party must be informed of the decision six months before the agreement is set to expire. According to the terms, the agreement automatically renews for an additional five years, otherwise," he was quoted as saying. 

What’s the background to this? 

The move comes just weeks after newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu formally asked India to withdraw its military personnel from the Maldives. These personnel, estimated at 77 persons, are in the country to operate helicopters and planes gifted by New Delhi to Male.

Muizzu is considered to be part of a group of India-sceptic politicians and was closely associated with former President Abdulla Yameen, who was a key leader of the “India Out" campaign. This movement attempted to portray India’s military presence in the Maldives as a security threat. During his election campaign, Muizzu made clear that he wanted to remove any foreign military presence in the country’s territory.

That said, according to a report, China has asked the Maldives for permission to allow a research survey vessel to dock at its port for a deep water exploration of the South Indian ocean from January to May. Beijing has asked this of Sri Lanka as well. India has raised its objection and asked both the nations to not give their permissions to the Chinese vessel, the report adds.

What does this mean for bilateral relations? 

It seems clear that Muizzu’s India policy will be markedly different from that of his predecessor, Ibrahim Solih. While Solih pursued an “India first" foreign policy, Muizzu has tried to bring other foreign players into the mix. His first foreign visit was to Turkey, not India, and his Vice President skipped a key security dialogue with India and other regional powers to instead visit China. 

While India has not overtly reacted to these moves, some experts have pointed to signs of displeasure. Prime Minister Modi skipped Muizzu’s inauguration last month and a lower-ranked minister was sent instead. Muizzu’s latest moves are no doubt disruptive, especially given the warm relationship New Delhi and Male had come to enjoy. However, experts point out that a solid bilateral relationship is vital for both countries.