How Thackeray brothers' reunion could change the game for BJP, Congress ahead of BMC polls

Estranged cousins Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray on Wednesday announced to reunite politically and take on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming corporation elections including the high-stakes Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC).

The official annoucement was made at a joint press conference attended by both cosusins in Mumbai.

There was no annoucement about seat sharing. However, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) will reportedly contest 150 seats, while the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) will field candidates in the remaining 77 seats. The BMC has 227 seats.

“It’s a very big day for Mumbai and Maharashtra and for all those who are fighting for the land of Maharashtra,” Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aaditya Thackeray said after the reunion annoucement.

Why did the cousins fall apart?

In 2006, Raj was miffed over his cousin Uddhav's elevation as the undivided Sena’s working president. He walked out of the party and floated the MNS. The reunion of Thackeray cousins after two decades could mark a tectonic shift in Mumbai's political landscape.

The BMC election may become a virtual ‘Thackeray vs The Rest’ contest creating a new set of challenges and opportunities for the major players: the BJP and the Congress.

For the united Thackerays, the BMC will certainly be a battle for the survival of the family brand. A defeat in the BMC—the source of the Sena's financial and organisational power for decades—would be a near-fatal blow.

Marathi vs Non-Marathi- what it means for the BJP?

For years, Thackerays having championed the cause of the Marathi manoos.

Marathi speakers, considered core Thackeray supporters, comprise about 26 per cent of Mumbai’s population. Muslims, about 11 per cent of the city’s population, are also likely to align with non-BJP forces. This, analysts feel, should worry the BJP. Another 11 per cent Dalit population of the city also holds the key.

Clearly the BMC polls would not be a cakewalk for the BJP, a strong performance in the recent local body polls in the state notwithstanding. The BJP-led Mahayuti bagged 207 of the 288 local bodies, while the Congress and the Sena (UBT) won 28 and nine each in the recently held local body elections in Maharashtra.

It is said that the split between the Shiv Sena and MNS benefited the BJP by dividing the Marathi-speaking vote. However, a unified Thackeray front reduces this "vote-cutting" effect, particularly in central Mumbai and the suburbs.

‘Desperate act of survival’

The BJP will be aiming at seize control of the BMC for the first time by challenging the Thackeray legacy. The saffron party has downplayed the reunion as a "desperate act of survival." In fact, the Maharashtra’s ruling party is pivoting "Development (Vikas) vs. Dynasty" narrative, banking on the support of non-Marathi voters (Gujaratis, North Indians) and the performance of the Eknath Shinde-led government.

BJP leader and Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has publicly downplayed the impact of the Thackerays joining forces. Yet, some BJP insiders have said that ‘counter strategies’ were being worked out by the party’s core committee to deal with the impact, Indian Express reported.

The Eknath Shinde Factor

The coming together of the Thackerays could mean the BJP would rely more on its ally, the Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena, especially in areas with a significant Marathi-speaking population.

The Shinde faction might as well lose its claim as the "true" heir to Balasaheb Thackeray's legacy.

Remember, both Thackeray-led factions have never moved away from their core Marathi manoos politics – an issue used by Bal Thackeray to establish the Shiv Sena in 1966.

Clearly for the BJP, the upcoming BMC poll is a challenge in its attempts to establish total dominance over the state's capital.

What it means for Congress?

The reunion has not gone down well with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of which Uddhav Thackeray is a part. The Congress party doesn’t seem to be keen on having Raj Thackeray’s MNS on board the MVA.

The Congress has announced that it would contest the BMC polls alone. However, back-door talks are still reportedly underway with the Congress high command to bring them on board. The local Mumbai Unit is adamant to go solo, as per reports.

What Congress fears?

The Congress party fears that allying with Raj Thackeray would alienate its core support base of minorities and North Indian migrants, given Raj’s history of "sons-of-the-soil" aggression.

And if Congress contests alone, it will be another test of whether it can maintain a distinct identity in Mumbai without relying on regional allies. This would lead to multi-cornered contests that would inadvertently help the BJP.

By contesting independently, the Congress party risks being squeezed out in a highly polarised battle between the Mahayuti (BJP-Shinde-Ajit Pawar) and the Thackeray-led alliance.