Former Soviet state reaches ‘moment of truth’: Russia or the West

A parliamentary election Saturday will decide whether it turns back toward the West and strengthens ties with Europe or slides firmly into Moscow’s sphere of influence.

The ruling party, Georgian Dream, has sparked protests this year with a series of laws that are widely seen as borrowing from Russia’s authoritarian playbook, clamping down on gay rights and requiring some groups with foreign funding to register as foreign agents. The party has cast the vote as a choice between war and peace. Campaign billboards juxtapose images of devastation in Ukraine—damaged churches, streets and classrooms—with idyllic Georgian landscapes and infrastructure projects.

That’s a message that resonates in this nation of 3.7 million where Russian forces still occupy 20% of the country after a war more than 15 years ago, despite opinion polls that show overwhelming support for joining the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Polls suggest a close race that could tip in either direction.

Giorgi Gakharia, a former prime minister turned opposition leader of the For Georgia party, paints the election as a simple yet momentous choice: “Do we want to be with the West or with Russia? Do we want democracy or autocracy?"

Russia sees the region as its backyard, and its shadow looms large. Nearly every country in the region is facing an internal struggle over how much influence Russia will have. Armenia is attempting to pivot Westward, while Azerbaijan is strengthening ties with Russia. Earlier this month, a Russia-backed campaign nearly thwarted the pro-EU side in a referendum in Moldova.

“Georgia is key because the West needs a virtuous counter model to the system of governance that you see in that region, especially in Russia," said Ian Kelly, a former U.S. ambassador to Georgia who is now teaching at Northwestern University. “We need a stable and reliable partner in this volatile region."

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell recently called the vote a “moment of truth" for Georgia and the West. The bloc this summer halted Tbilisi’s application to join after the government pushed for legislation that the U.S. and the EU say stifles fundamental freedoms. The U.S. introduced visa restrictions and suspended $95 million in aid.

That moment isn’t lost on people like Nina Areshidze, a 20-year-old psychology student who joined mass antigovernment protests earlier this year. Last month, the organization she works for, which offers student-exchange programs, had to close because of the legislation.

“Our hopes to join the West were pushed down," she said. “Now is the moment to fight back."

On Friday evening, the main roads exiting the capital city of Tbilisi were clogged with traffic as people rushed to go and vote at their registered addresses.

Georgia was once lauded as a democratic trailblazer among former Soviet states after taking steps to reduce corruption and improve press freedoms. But in recent years, Georgian Dream, in government for over a decade, has tightened its grip on independent institutions, including the judiciary, while becoming more hostile toward the EU and the U.S.

Now, the party warns that the West is seeking to drag Georgia into a conflict with Russia, stirring fear in a country where memories are still fresh of a five-day war in 2008, when Moscow troops invaded to back the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

“It’s a fateful election because Georgia is very vulnerable," said Levan Makhashvili, a senior parliament official running for Georgian Dream. “The population has to choose between war and peace."

While it hasn’t had formal diplomatic relations with Moscow since the 2008 war, Georgia since the invasion of Ukraine has increased flights to Russia, deepened its energy and economic reliance and welcomed thousands of Russian tourists. Georgia hasn’t implemented bilateral sanctions on Moscow and has become a conduit for sanctions circumvention as Russia seeks to import banned goods such as microchips to use in weapons manufacturing.

“We cannot ignore Russia, our economy is dependent on it, but we have to re-establish connections to the EU and the U.S.," said Mamuka Khazaradze, a businessman who now leads the opposition party Lelo for Georgia. “That’s how we survive."

Meanwhile, the government has signed a strategic partnership agreement with China. Earlier this year, Georgia announced that a Chinese consortium is set to build a large deep-sea port on the country’s Black Sea Coast.

Backlash against Georgian Dream boiled over into protests this year after it enacted legislation that critics call the “Russian law." It requires groups that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as foreign agents. The law closely resembles Russia’s “foreign agent" laws used to suppress dissent.

Further mirroring tactics used by President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the Georgian government also passed a law imposing sweeping curbs on LGBTQ rights. The legislation coincided with an increase in attacks against LGBTQ activists, culminating in the fatal stabbing of a prominent transgender activist in her Tbilisi apartment in September.

Ahead of Saturday’s election, Georgian Dream has also threatened opposition parties with persecution.

The party rejects accusations of repressive tactics, saying it has brought economic growth and the laws it has enacted are necessary and can be challenged in court. The Kremlin on Friday dismissed allegations of trying to influence Georgia. But Russian officials have praised the government for implementing the recent legislation and resisting what they describe as a Western agenda.

The war-and-peace messaging has struck a chord with voters like Ketevan Amirejibi, a 70-year-old historian and translator.

“We are not in a situation where we can afford to openly confront Russia," she said. “Our economy is tied to Russia and a war today will destroy everything."

Gakharia, the former prime minister, said that while he understood people’s fears, peace is only possible if Georgia has strong links to the West. “Peace with Russia is rather unusual," he said.

Write to Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com