What Nayab Singh Saini brings to the table for BJP in Haryana ahead of Lok Sabha elections, assembly polls 2024

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chose to make its Haryana unit chief, Nayab Singh Saini, the new Chief Minister of the state on Tuesday. He replaced Manohar Lal Khattar, the two-time CM, who is likely to contest the Karnal Lok Sabha seat.

The development gained significance as the BJP prepared to contest the Lok Sabha elections, aiming for over 370 of the 543 seats. Haryana is also slated for state assembly polls in October this year. The BJP has been in power in Haryana since 2014.

Why is Nayab Singh Saini important for the BJP?

1. Stronghold on OBC community

Nayab Singh Saini belongs to the OBC community in Haryana. So, the move to make him the CM could be seen as a way for the BJP to set the caste equation right and make inroads in the vote share among the OBCs.

The BJP had replaced Om Prakash Dhankar with Saini as the Haryana party chief in October, a move then seen as an attempt to strengthen its hold on the OBC community.

According to PTI, the support of non-dominant OBC castes is crucial to the BJP's rise in many states since Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the party to power at the Centre in 2014.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured over 70 per cent of the vote share of both non-Jat upper caste votes and OBC votes, according to data from Lokniti, a research programme at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Khattar had helped the BJP secure significant support from non-Jat castes.

This year, the BJP wants to contest all 10 Lok Sabha seats, including the western districts of Hisar and Bhiwani which have significant OBC populations. Like Khattar, Saini is also a non-Jat CM.

Haryana stands in fifth position in India when it comes to scheduled caste population size. There are 74 castes/communities (on the central list) under the OBC category in Haryana.

According to Census 2011, the percentage share of the scheduled caste population in Haryana was recorded at around 20 per cent. It was 22.5 per cent in rural areas and it decreased in urban areas from 14.4 per cent to 15.8 per cent.

2. BJP bringing fresh faces forward

Saini's appointment gels with the BJP's exercise to elevate a younger lot of leadership. He, like Madhya Pradesh CM Mohan Yadav and Rajasthan CM Bhajan Lal Sharma, is in his 50s while Chhattisgarh CM Vishnu Deo Sai turned 60 last month.

The BJP has been giving surprises ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. In the last year's assembly polls too, the BJP picked up new faces as CMs. For example, tribal leader Vishnu Deo Sai became Chhattisgarh CM while one of his two deputies, Arun Sao, hails from the OBCs.

3. Combat anti-incumbency

The appointment of the new chief minister could be seen as a way to counter the anti-incumbency that the Khattar government may have been facing amid the ongoing farmers' protest. 

This is not the first that the BJP has made surprise changes in a state government. In the past too, the party believed that the change in guard close to assembly polls helped it beat anti-incumbency. For example, Pushkar Singh Dhami was the BJP's surprise pick for the CM's post in Uttarakhand in 2021. Dhami took over as the CM for the first time in 2021 as Tirath Singh Rawat stepped down after holding the post for less than four months.

The BJP came to power in Haryana in 2014. In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP had won 47 of the 90 seats, with around 33 per cent vote share. Later, in 2019 assembly polls, the party's vote share marginally increased to 36 per cent, but the number of seats won reduced to 40 — falling six short of the majority in the assembly.

Meanwhile, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won seven of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana with a 35 per cent vote share. In 2019, the BJP won all 10 seats with a 58 per cent vote share.

4. Jat votes divided

Khattar, as a non-Jat leader, helped the BJP secure support from non-Jat castes in previous elections. The BJP may be banking on Saini for the same.

Now, the party has snapped ties with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). The JJP led by Deputy CM Dushyant Chautala had 10 MLAs in the Haryana Assembly. The party was founded by Chautala in 2018.

This implies that the votes of the Jats, the most populous community in the state, are likely to be divided among the Congress, the JJP and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD).

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the INLD won 19 seats, while in the 2019 poll, it had won only one seat.

Jats represent approximately 20 to 29 per cent of the state's population, as per survey estimates and reports. Over the years, the political landscape of Haryana has been primarily dominated by the Jats.

However, this dynamic shifted in 2014 with the appointment of Manohar Lal Khattar from the BJP as the state's chief minister. This was the first time in nearly two decades that a non-Jat leader had assumed the role.