How Trump won the economy-is-everything election

Roughly 40% of voters said the economy was their top issue, far outstripping any other issue, and those voters favored Donald Trump by 60% to 38%. Many weren’t thinking about the streak of robust economic growth or the Federal Reserve’s potential soft landing when they voted, but their grocery bills and out-of-reach ambitions.

Americans are still feeling sticker shock from higher prices on everything from cleaning supplies to a cup of coffee that followed the pandemic. Their anger about the economy extended beyond prices to encompass wider discontent and anxiety over the future. Many Americans are frustrated that they can’t afford to buy a home or start a family. Fewer believe that the American dream is achievable.

“We are so tired. Everyone we know is so tired, like somebody’s foot has been on the American people’s chest for the past four years," said Amanda DiAntonio, a 36-year-old hair stylist who lives in Henderson, Nev., and voted for Trump.

She said she believes Trump will enable working people to enjoy their lives again. “I just feel a big exhale," she said, “like let’s move forward because we’re going to be OK."

The Wall Street Journal spoke to hundreds of Americans this year about their feelings on the economy. The interviews revealed a wide disconnect between official government data showing an increasingly robust economy and persistent pessimism among Americans. While Democrats touted the economy’s strength, many voters said the economy as they knew it was broken.

“This happy talk doesn’t resonate with most Americans," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said of the political messaging. “They’re still paying higher prices for many things they need to buy."

Chris Abramowicz said he voted for Biden in 2020 and came to regret the decision. The 39-year-old from Rockford, Ill., flipped his vote to Trump this time around.

With nine children and another on the way, he felt the rise in grocery prices acutely. He recalls being especially peeved about the soaring price of eggs. “This isn’t a 20% increase, this is ‘the chickens have gone on strike because they know Biden’s a union man,’ " said Abramowicz, who owns a small information-technology business.

He said he doesn’t think Vice President Kamala Harris understands that pain, and he resents what he sees as liberal politicians’ insistence that the economy is booming while he and everyone he knows feels worse off. “It was baldfaced gaslighting, when you look around and see things clearly, but you’re told, ‘Oh, no, everything’s great.’ "

Trump voters were more motivated by economic issues than Harris voters. About half of Trump voters said higher prices were the largest factor in their decision, according to AP VoteCast.

“The economy is everything," said DiAntonio, the hair stylist. “It’s the way we live. It all cycles back to how you feel in your everyday life."

She blames Biden and Harris for not being able to afford things she said Americans once took for granted, such as buying a house or going on vacation. She voted for the first time in 2016, for Trump, then voted for him again in 2020 and this year.

“Literally everything, parenting, eating, working, just our daily grind has been so hard," she said. She has resisted increasing prices on the inflation-weary customers of her salon, she said, even though she is paying more for supplies like foil and toner.

She and her husband, Rocky DiAntonio, a YouTube content creator who home-schools their 5 and 7-year-old children, had nearly enough saved five years ago for a down payment on a home. Now, they worry about paying their $3,000 monthly rent, and have dipped repeatedly into their house savings to keep up with increasing bills. They have stopped talking about buying a house.

Trump put the cost of living front and center in his pitch, claiming in his nomination acceptance speech that “inflation will vanish completely" under his watch. Harris, too, said that families were struggling, and that policy proposals like an expanded child tax credit would help.

Trump’s message has long appealed to voters in places where the decline of domestic manufacturing eliminated good blue-collar jobs. It also has resonated with working-class voters who once thought they could count on a college degree as a ticket into the middle class, but have started to question its value.

The run of high inflation that followed the Covid pandemic made the economy a concern for a range of voters. Inflation shot up during the Biden presidency, and although it has cooled lately, prices remain far higher than they were when Trump left office. The Labor Department’s measure of consumer prices was nearly 20% higher this September than in January 2021—the largest increase for a single presidential term since Ronald Reagan’s first four years in office.

Anger over inflation persisted despite a labor market that steadily added jobs while boosting wages. Even though Labor Department data indicate that median wages outpaced inflation, that wasn’t true for a significant number of people.

A whopping 96% of voters said “high prices for gas, groceries and other goods" were a factor in their vote, according to AP VoteCast.

Anastasios Sofianidis, a 48-year-old unemployed cook from Detroit’s west side, said higher prices on everyday purchases such as gasoline were on his mind when he voted for Trump on Tuesday. So was the rising cost of lamb for Orthodox Easter. “We only buy one leg," he said. “I don’t get the shank."

Rob Cooper, a 50-year-old chief financial officer for a retail chain, told the Journal earlier this year that the increasing price on his favorite deodorant, Old Spice Stronger Swagger, bothered him so much that he started looking for it at discount stores. He said he voted for Trump on Tuesday because of his positions on corporate and individual taxes—even though he recognizes Trump’s plans to levy tariffs could further increase prices.

Many Americans also feel pinched by high interest rates. Federal Reserve data show that just before the central bank began raising rates in 2022 in its bid to cool inflation, the average rate on credit card plans was 14.6%. As of August, just before the Fed cut rates for the first time, it was 21.8%.

Interest rates rose on car loans and mortgages. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed from less than 3% when Biden came into office to 7.8% last year, a multidecade high, according to Freddie Mac. It has since fallen to 6.7%.

Home prices also shot up, making it harder and harder for many families to buy their first home. The National Association of Realtors’ housing affordability index, which incorporates median single-family existing-home prices, mortgage rates and median family incomes, shows homes are at their least affordable level since the early 1980s.

A July Wall Street Journal/NORC poll of 1,502 U.S. adults found that 89% of respondents said owning a home is either essential or important to their vision of the future, while only 10% said homeownership is easy or somewhat easy to achieve.

Demarion Richey said he could have bought a home five years ago on his $50,000 salary as a restaurant steward in Las Vegas, but not today. “I tried to buy one and completely failed," said the 30-year-old.

Trump’s economic record, Richey said, eclipsed his personal distaste for the former president. “When he was president, our economy was great," said Richey. “As soon as Joe Biden and Kamala stepped in, it went downhill."

Michelle and Christopher Cortazzo, who live in Glen Rock, N.J., and voted for Trump, said paying for child care was the breaking point for them.

Michelle, a 38-year-old pharmacy consultant, said they pay $1,500 a month for their 4-year-old son’s daycare. “It feels wrong," she said. “We went to college, we worked really hard to move up in our careers, we’ve done what society tells us to do, but it feels like we’re punished for that."

Child-care prices have dissuaded the couple from having a second child, even though they each have six-figure incomes.

“If we had two, we would be living paycheck to paycheck, and that just terrifies me," said Christopher, 40, who works for a pharmacy-benefits company. “It’s almost a status symbol now if you can afford to have a big family. It’s way more impressive than having a fancy car just because you know how much that costs."

Douglas Belkin contributed to this article.

Write to Rachel Louise Ensign at Rachel.Ensign@wsj.com, Rachel Wolfe at rachel.wolfe@wsj.com and Justin Lahart at Justin.Lahart@wsj.com