Can new Jharkhand CM Champai Soren win floor test likely to be held on Monday? Here's what numbers say

The floor test of the new Jharkhand government is likely to be held on Monday. The Champai Soren-led coalition government in Jharkhand is all set to seek a vote of trust on February 5 during a special two-day assembly session, news agency PTI reported.

A day ahead of the trust vote, the MLAs of the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance returned to Ranchi. They had stayed at a resort in Hyderabad for the last three days to "thwart any attempt of" poaching by opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Champai Soren, who took oath as the new Jharkhand Chief Minister on Friday, claimed support of 47 MLAs of the ruling JMM-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance. Meanwhile, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge tweeted on X, saying that Champai Soren has the support of 48 MLA.

What numbers in Jharkhand Assembly really reveal?

The Jharkhand Assembly has 81 members. A political party needs support of 41 MLAs (majority, half-way mark) to form a government in Jharkhand. So, can the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance win the floor test on Monday by gathering the support of more than 41 MLAs?

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Here's a party-wise breakup of number of MLAs in Jharkhand Assembly:

(Data source: jharkhandvidhansabha.nic.in)

Analysis: These numbers show that JMM, Congress and RJD MLAs make up a total of 46 MLAs — conformably crossing the half-way mark of 41 needed to for the state government.

Champai Soren is most likely to win the trust votes on Monday, if nothing goes wrong. Simply put, if the MLAs currently backing Champai Soren remain committed to him, he will have no problem proving his majority in the assembly.

Meanwhile, the BJP and allies have 29 MLAs, NDTV reported. In the 2014 Jharkhand Assembly election, the BJP had formed the Jharkhand government with help from All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU).

In the next Jharkhand Assembly Election, in 2019, the JMM-led 3-party alliance had attained a majority in the 81-member assembly, with JMM leader Hemant Soren returning to power in the state. 

However, Hemant Soren was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on January 31 in connection with a land fraud case. He was sent to five-day ED custody on February 2. Meanwhile, Champai Soren took over as the new Chief Minister of Jharkhand.