Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Will Prajwal Revanna sex scandal impact BJP- JD(S) poll prospects in Karnataka?

Fourteen parliamentary seats of Karnataka are among 94 constituencies going to polls nationwide in the third phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 on May 7. Karnataka sends 28 members to the Lok Sabha. Fourteen seats of the state voted in the second phase on April 26.

Karnataka is crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress, and the regional player Janata Dal (Secular). 

For the BJP, the contest in the state matters, as it’s the only state in the South where it has gained a dominant presence after winning 25 of the 28 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It is also key for the BJP’s ‘Mission South’, as the party has failed to make inroads in southern states other than Karnataka and Telangana. 

Also Read: Prajwal Revanna sexual abuse case: Hassan MP's arrest at landing imminent as look-out notice issued

Karnataka is also pivotal for a surging Congress, especially after the grand old party registered a victory by bagging 135 of 224 seats in the state assembly elections last year.  

The 14 seats in north Karnataka voting on May 7 include Chikkodi, Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bidar, Koppal, Bellary, Haveri, Dharwad, Uttara Kannada, Davangere and Shimoga

Survival battle for JD(S)

And for the Janata Dal(S), the biggest ‘loser’ in 2023 state polls, the stakes remain even higher considering the party’s ‘existential’ crisis.  The stakes are high for the BJP ally considering its dismal performance in last year's assembly elections. JD (S) won just 19 seats. Perhaps the party has allied with BJP to gain the lost ground in the state.  

The three Lok Sabha seats that the JD(S) is contesting as part of its alliance went to the polls in the phase 3 on April 26. Among these was the Hassan seat, which JD(S) leader Prajwal Revanna, facing sexual abuse allegations, won in 2019. In fact, Hassan was the only Lok Sabha seat that the JD(S) won in 2019 general elections. However, the JD (S) was in alliance with the Congress party in 2019.

“The next round of elections is in North Karnataka where the JD(S) does not draw much support. So, I think it will have minimal visibility in that sense. Unless the SIT probe comes out with significantly concrete evidence, I think the BJP will be able to dismiss it as morphed. Had it blown up the way it has now, just before the polls (April 26), then it would have had a different impact in Southern Karnataka,” political analyst Sandeep Shastri was quoted as saying by News18.

On the day of polling on April 16, former Prime Minister and JD(S) chief HD Deve Gowda exuded confidence that the BJP-JDS alliance would secure victory on all 14 seats of the state that voted in the first phase on that day.

Prajwal Revanna ‘sexual abuse’ impact  

Alliance partners BJP and the JD(S) found themselves in a spot days ahead of the May 7 polls after the sexual abuse episode involving Prajwal Revanna, who is also the grandson of former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda. 

Though JD(S) has no significant presence in the 14 seats of north Karnataka headed to polls on May 7, the scandal is expected to have a bearing on the prospects of the BJP-JD(S) alliance due to its impact on party’s image. The JD(S) and the BJP have, however, distanced themselves from Prajwal. The party has suspended him, and the BJP is saying it won’t stand with him, either.

On May 1, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said his party would not stand with those who commit atrocities against women. Shah, speaking for the first time after the scandal, hit out at Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM D K Shivakumar, asking why no action was initiated against Prajwal before the elections were over in the Vokkaliga belt, in the first phase.

Shah was referring to 14 seats of South Karnataka that went to polls on April 26. These 14 seats comprised areas in Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysore and the coastal seats of the state.

In the 14 seats voting on May 7,  the Lingayat community is a dominant caste. The Lingayats, Karnataka's largest single community, constitute nearly 17 per cent of state's 5.3 crore electorate. Vokkaligas, another politically significant group, constitute about 12 per cent voters.